Beat My CFB Picks For This Week & Win A Prize

Friday Mornings Around 9:15 I jump on our sister station Fox Sports Radio to pick this weeks biggest games with local sports legend Teddy Heffner We have to pick against the spread. Those are the point spreads Teddy found earlier in the week so the current spread is irrelevant for our contest. Now if you'd like to pick your 7 and see if you do better than me, you could win a Mathias Sandwich Tailgate Special. You just text your picks to 803-315 3292 to be entered. You don't need to explain your picks like I do below.

This weeks games

Mizzou +12.5 at USC 4:15 SEC Network

As dumbfounding as it seems Mizzou leads this series 9-5 and enters the contest with a better record on the year of 7-2. South Carolina is 6-3 yet they are double digit favorites. Maybe it’s because Shane Beamer has turned November into Crow Vember for the Gamecocks going 8-2 against SEC competition in this month. Perhaps it’s because LaNorris Sellers is improving by leaps and bounds. Vs Oklahoma 16 of 24 for 175 with 28 yards rushing. Vs A&M 13-27 for 244 with 106 rushing! Vs Vandy 14-20 for 238 with another 38 on the ground. I tend to think the real reason Gamecocks are such big favorites is the Defense. 3rd in the nation on sacks.14th in rush defense. 19th in interceptions. 33rd in passing yards allowed. The most important stat, 12th in the nation on points allowed. Missouri scored 0 points against Alabama. 21 against Auburn. 10 against A&M. Granted they did score 30 last week against Oklahoma, but the last 7 were a scoop and score and Oklahoma spotted them a total of 4 fumbles. In other words they struggle to score against mediocre defenses. This week will be a huge step up. I’m taking the Gamecocks in 31-17 type of game.   

Clemson-10 at Pitt Noon ESPN

Nice win for the Tigers on the road last week vs VA Tech. Pitt looked bad losing last week at home to Virginia. That probably explains why they’re double digit home dogs. All 24 points for the Tigers came in the 2nd half which could mean they saw something and exploited it, or that they have finally fixed the offense. I’m going with the first explanation. Clemson has had the benefit of playing some of the worst defenses in football this year.  Wake Forest is 119 App State 116, Stanford 109, Virginia 106, FL State #99, #86 NC State, Louisville #72. Despite that Clemson is 14th in total yards. Despite that Clemson is averaging 37 PPG. (Gamecocks 31 PPG) This week they face the #63 D. I’m guessing they’ll do about the same last week mid 20’s. Pitt’s Offense is about as effective as Clemson’s scoring 36 PPG. So the question is can the Tigers hold them in the teens to cover 10? I don’t think so. Give me the Panthers and the points.

LSU-4 at Florida 3:30 ESPN

Both teams have become huge disappointments this year. LSU humiliated at home by Alabama 42-13 after losing to A&M the week previous 38-23. It really started in the 2nd half of the A&M game when they moved to the running QB and scored 31! LSU had 2 weeks to prep for what everyone knew was coming, a bunch of Jalen Milroe runs and they had no answers as he scampered for 185 yards! The good news for LSU is Florida will either have an injured 2nd string QB (DJ Lagaway pulled his hamstring 2 weeks ago) or perhaps a Yale transfer 3rd string playing Saturday. Either way the running QB is probably not a great option. I don’t feel great about either team. But the Gators are home dawgs and if they could win this, there’s a reasonable expectation they could beat FL State and be bowl eligible. I’m taking the Gators.

TN +10 at GA 7:30 ABC

Kirby Smart says “The leaders are doing the right thing on this team. They’re owning up to mistakes they’ve made or how they’ve played. If it hasn’t been to their standard, they want to improve.” They have to get right quick. After fooling around with Florida and MS State and outright losing to a medicore Alabama team they went ahead and got crushed last week by Ole Miss. These are all must win games now for the Dawgs. Carson Beck has become and INT machine! 7 picks and only 2 TD’s the last 3 games. TN has picked off 8 this year which puts them about average #54 in the country. I think the secret sauce for Georgia may in fact be the home field. They haven’t played in Athens since 10/8 so after more than a month the crowd should be wild. The Bulldogs have the longest home field win streak in the nation right now at 28 in a row.  As Kirby said “Thank goodness it’s at our place,” I think they’ll win but I’m taking TN to cover.

Kansas +3 at BYU 10:15 ESPN

BYU remains undefeated after a late score ended the uprising of the Utah Utes. They were down 21-0 at half and squeaked out a 22-21 victory. Kansas enters the contest at a lowly 3-6. But riding high after winning a 45-36 shootout last week against Iowa State. The fact that a 9-0 team is only a 3 point favorite at home to a 3-6 opponent tells you that the bettors are not impressed with BYU this year. I’m not either but the spread is so small I’ve got to take the Cougars. BTW The computer model has them win by an average of more than 60% of the time. Not a sure thing but playing the odds they should cover.

Texas -14 at Arkansas Noon ABC

Arkansas has a good pass game. Taylen Green is averaging almost 250 yards in the air per game. He’s also nimble. He has to be because the line hasn’t held up so well. Despite his mobility the Razorbacks have surrendered 25 sacks this year. Texas is 41st in the nation at sacking QBs with 21 on the year. Keep an aye on their sack leader LB Anthony Hill Jr. More importantly the Longhorns seemed to have regained the offensive swagger last week hanging 35 in the first half before cruising to a 49-17 win against Florida. I feel like Texas is rolling and will another 30 plus this week. However the Razorbacks have been performing on offense their last 2 games with 31 against Ole Miss and 58 against MS State. Plus they had a bye week to rest and scheme. I’m going with Ark.

Coastal +8 at Marshall 1PM ESPN+

5-4 Chanticleers vs the 6-3 Thundering Herd. Both won their last games. Computer gives Marshall a 77% chance of winning. Coastal’s offense is slightly better at #43 to Herd’s #57. But it’s Marshall’s D that jumps out at you only giving up 23 ppg compared to the 31 Coastal averages. Not a lot to go on but I’ll take Marshall at home to cover.

Tie Breaker: Rocket and Mafah rushing yards

Rocket has hit his stride. 144 against A&M 126 against Vandy. Missouri is the actual middle of the SEC Rush D’s. 8th in the conference, 41st overall. They surrender 131 YPG on the ground. They’re not all from 1 back obviously. Rocket only rushed 15 times last week and had 2 catches for 52 more yards. I think they may dump a few more his way this week. I think that would effect his overall rushing and keep him around 100. Mafah had 2 more yards than Sanders last week, but 11 more carries. The week before was even more carries getting 30 attempts for huge yards at 170. This week the D will be a little more stout so I imagine him getting about 25 carries for 120. Total 220 for the both of em.