How Will The Gamecocks Beat LSU

LSU -7 at South Carolina Noon on ABC

Gamecocks are a home TD underdog to the 16th ranked Bayou Bengals. This is a surprisingly huge moment for USC after struggling with Old Dominion. The word on the street was that after Kentucky beat us Gameday was going to be in Lexington for UK vs UGA game. When USC stomped a mudhole in the Wildcats butt ESPN called an audible and are now sending their show to Columbia. This will be the 8th time Gameday has been here. 2001, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2010, 2012, and 2014. It’s been a decade in the wilderness but the buzz is back.

I know a lot of people are concerned about the weather. As I write this there’s a 70% chance of rain. Dowell Loggains thinks differently then most OC’s in that he tends to want to pass in the rain. Theory being the DB’s don’t know where the receivers are running already, and when you add slippery soil to that equation the opportunity for blown coverages jumps way up. Not sure if he will subscribe to that theory with our passing game sputtering and ranked 122nd.  

If LSU wanted to run in the rain, they apparently don’t trust any of their RB’s. John Emery was their leading rusher in game 1 vs Southern Cal. 10 carries for 61 yards. But tore his ACL in practice the next week and is out for the season. Last week against Nicholls, they did RB by committee with 21 carries spread over 5 guys. None hit the 20 yard mark. But even with only running the ball 21 times in a 61 play game, that shows how pass heavy they are. Gamecocks in their win over Kentucky ran 2 more plays (63) but had 10 more run attempts. 7 of those by LaNorris Sellers who I wouldn’t be surprised if he and Robbie Ashford ran some more wildcat options. Nicholls has a RB named Collin Guggenheim who is 5’11” 200lbs and he gashed the Tigers for 145 yards. Several times he lined up as QB, took the snap and found holes to run.  Both LaNorris and Robbie are better runners who if they find similar holes could take it to the house. A serious question that LSU is asking itself ‘is our Defense OK’? They gave up 450 yards to Southern Cal and another 300 to 0-2 Nicholls. Nicholls had 200 yards in the previous game against LA Tech! So if South Carolina with the 121st ranked offense was drawing up a ranked opponent to beat, LSU with their 90th ranked Defense fits the bill.

On the other hand our Defense is our strength. Currently ranked 30th The LSU offense is good but not great according to the stats ranked 60th. And as we already discussed the majority of their yards and plays are from passing. LSU QB Garrett Nussmeier is completing 75% of his passes and has 8 TD tosses in 2 games! But LSU's desire to pass plays into the Gamecocks strength as they’re 10th in the nation is Pass Defense Efficiency! Our D is also elite at turnovers. Currently tied for 8th best in the country. 6 of those turnovers on interceptions putting them at 6th best in the country! Again LSU is going to want to pass and we want them to pass. Gamecocks are 3rd in the nation in sacks! 9th in the nation in tackles for losses. However the LSU offensive line is a big step up from Kentucky's. Shane Beamer said on Tuesday  “We’re getting ready to play against the best offensive line in the nation”. That line features four returning starters and a 6’6” 320lb Center named DJ Chester. Perhaps the noise will bother the youngster in his first real hostile environment.

Remember fans influence games. Typically the betting line favors the home team by 3. So in this instance if the Gamecocks were playing LSU on a neutral field we'd be 10 point underdogs and if it was at LSU 13 points underdogs. You can have even more influence if you can get Williams Brice loud beginning when LSU tries to huddle. As Miami QB Cam Smith said after beating Florida in the swamp; "Some advice to the fans. If you're going to be loud, you have to be loud when we're huddling. Can't just be loud once we break the huddle. By that time, there's no point. We communicated already". I disagree and believe crowd noise can help create false starts especially with a new center. But his point is valid that they're going to be using hand signals at the line. The noise can cause them to have to stay in the huddle longer trying to hear the play and that can lead to rushing the snap. No on with our breakdown of this weeks game.

 On Defense Shane’s takeaway; “LSU doesn’t try to disguise a lot. They line up in press man-to-man and say, ‘Go beat us.’” They feel very comfortable with their DB's and that's why the rain may help us if we're trying to pass. But I also tend to think that the film shows they're more susceptible to the run. Our run game is a bit better than our passing (though neither have produced much yet) 91st ranking for the run, 122nd in passing. It needs to be noted that South Carolina may have caught a break in that LSU DT Jacobian Guillory is not playing. He was injured in the win over Nicholls. Shone Washington replaced him and Coach Kelly was apparently not very happy with the results. The Tigers announced Monday that they will be moving several guys around trying to find the right combination against South Carolina.

Brian Kelly had his press conference on Tuesday as well and is very concerned about the Gamecocks D. "Defensively, they lead the SEC in sacks. So this is a defense with an outstanding front. Freshman edge player in Dylan Stewart, (Kyle) Kennard is an outstanding player. Really love (Nick) Emmanwori, the defensive back, No. 7. Very active. He was a freshman All-American in 2022. Just a really, really good defense”!

When it came to the Gamecock Offense, Coach Kelly was very complimentary. "The type of offense they're running now is a problem for a lot of Defenses with (LaNorris) Sellers at quarterback, (Raheim) Sanders, the transfer from Arkansas, (Joshua) Simon, the tight end. This is a big, physical quarterback. Reminds me of the kid at Florida, (Anthony) Richardson. The quarterback at Arkansas, (KJ) Jefferson. Big, physical, 6-3, 242 (pounds). You know, we're gonna have to be prepared for a similar offense in a sense, but a guy with a strong arm that can certainly get the ball down the field. (Dalevon) Campbell, (Nyck) Harbor is a freak of an athlete. So they've got some weapons from an offensive standpoint that we're going to have to fight to contain". That's kind of what I was hoping for preseason, but it hasn't clicked as of yet.

Now for the pick. I tend to favor home underdogs, so I'm taking the Gamecocks and the points. But fans don't care about that. Losing by 5 isn't really a win! Will South Carolina defeat LSU? According to to ESPN's FPI predictor, South Carolina has a 49% chance of winning this football game. That's pretty freaking good odds! I'll add that since 2021, LSU is 8-12 when playing on the road! The environment should be wild! The Gamecock D flying to the ball. I believe we can get 2 turnovers which lead to points. Southern Cal isn't a great D currently ranked 63rd after 2 games. Last game they played Utah State from the Mountain West Conference. LSU at full strength put up 117 yards on the ground which I imagine will be cut in half this game. The passing went for 304 which I imagine will be about 50 less on Saturday. I'm looking at 250 in the air and 60 on the ground for a total offensive out put of 310 for LSU. With our punting game back to being very good, as long as we don't turn it over, or at the very least turn it over deep in our end of the field, LSU should be held to under 25 points. If we get 10 points from short fields/turnovers I have to believe our offense can produce 17 points. That's why I'm calling for the upset in a 28-23 type of a game. See you all at Willie B Saturday!