Teddy Heffner on our sister station Fox Sports 1400 has me on Friday mornings around 9:15 to discuss the biggest college games of the week. If you want to pick the games as well you could win a tailgate package from Mathias Sandwich shop if you beat me! Teddy will give you the details on how to enter. Here's the games he's picked for this week along with the point spreads and the tie break question at the bottom. Would love to hear you analysis of my analysis so let me know on social media @kellynashradio
TN at SC+21.5
Gamecocks have spoiled some good TN seasons in the past. 1992 upset kept the Vols from winning the SEC east. 2016 Vols had beaten Georgia and Fl only to lose in Columbia and dash their SEC dreams again. Can we play spoiler again? No. Offense and Defense seem broken right now. Shane Beamer pointed out that Georgia contained Tennessee by tackling on the spot of the pass. Gamecocks have been frustrating to watch on D with the amount of missed tackles they have. In SEC competition TN hung 38 on FL, 40 on LSU, 52 on Bama, 44 on Kentucky and 66 on Mizzou. In other words other than the Georgia game they have gotten better every week. For the Gamecocks in SEC play we started with 30 vs Ark, 7 vs GA, 24 vs KY, 30 vs A&M, 10 vs Mizzou, 38 vs Vandy and 10 vs FL. Our best game ties their worst. They have every incentive to blow us out as style points might help get them into the playoffs. I'm afraid of a 70 point performance this week. Vols win big.
Miami at Clemson -19
Miami is not a good team despite their “big win” over GA Tech last week to get them to 5-5. Death Valley is still hoping for a miracle to get their Tigers back into playoff contention. They’ll all be SC fans Saturday night! I imagine Dabo needs a blowout and Miami is a good team to get it against. Middle Tenn hung 45 on them and it’s one of A&M’s only wins. 2 weeks ago FL State beat them 45-3. Don’t burn me again Dabo. Handle your bidness similarly with a 35-14 type of win.
Ole Miss at Ark +2.5
Ole Miss should have beat Bama last week! They will take out their frustrations this week on the Hogs. This game also features the SEC’s only 2 1,000-yard rushers thus far. Ole Miss’s Quinshon Judkins has the lead over Arkansas’s Rocket Sanders entering this game, 1,169 yards (and 15 touchdowns) to 1,147 yards (and 7 touchdowns).
Look for Quinshon Judkins to once again carry the load offensively for Ole Miss, while Jaxson Dart makes a couple of plays with his arm and a couple more with his legs to lead the Rebels to a 10 point win.
Duke at Pitt -12
Pitt boasts the nation's top pass rush, averaging 3.7 sacks per game! They’re the 15th ranked overall D. Coach Pat Narduzzi's has never lost to Duke: 6-0. They’re playing at home
Duke has a well balanced attack earning them 33.7 PPG Total yards per game: 419.4 split evenly between passing yards per game: 215 and running at 204.4. I imagine the Pitt D will knock those stats down a peg. I also expect Pitt to win the turnover battle. Duke D is allowing the 107th most passing yards per game so look for some easy yard there for Pitt. .Since we know the ACC title game is set for UNC vs Clemson these teams are playing for bowl placement. I expect both teams to play hard but I’m taking Duke! Pitt will probably win but I’m very doubtful on this point spread.
TCU at Baylor +3
Baylor has the 2nd best D in the Big 12. TCU struggled against a nowhere as good Texas D last week. a season-low 3.6 yards per carry and just 124 passing yards in a 17-10 win. TCU has to figure out how to correct their offense or it will be a miserable day in Waco. Good news is it’s a noon kickoff so the crowd won’t be too wild. Baylor will have all of TCU’s attention as it’s an in state rivalry and the last legit threat on their schedule to stop them from being a playoff worthy team. (next week they play 4-6 Iowa State. )I believe TCU will right the offensive ship. Last week was the first time they didn’t score at least 34 points so I expect them to win rather easily with an eye popping kind of score like 42-28.
Other USC at UCLA +2.5
PAC 12 championship on the line as #7 Southern Cal takes on #16 UCLA. Southern Cal got bad news this week as their top back Travis Dye is unable to go. Heisman hopeful Caleb Williams will have to do a little more and this is his big shot to impress voters in a prime time game from The Rose Bowl. I think big time players make big time plays in big time games and I’m betting Caleb is a big time player. Southern Cal with the win.
FL at Vandy -14
The SportsLine Projection Model says FL covers. Anthony Richardson is getting better with every game so I believe the computer.
Tiebreaker total TN yards -SC total yards. TN avg the best in football at 543 ypg. SC is near the bottom at 355. The achiles on TN has been their D which is about as good as ours avg 392 ypg vs our 386 ypg. Last week they put up a draw dropping 724 yards against Mizzou. The week after Mizzou had held us to 203. They also held Mizzou to 389 and we held them to 367 implying that the D's are in fact similar. I imagine then we will get about 300. Tennessee will get 630. Meaning the answer is 330.