Teddy Heffner on our sister station Fox Sports 1400 has me on Friday mornings around 9:15 to discuss the biggest college games of the week. If you want to pick the games as well you could win a tailgate package from Mathias Sandwich shop if you beat me! Teddy will give you the details on how to enter. Here's the games he's picked for this week along with the point spreads and the tie break question at the bottom. Would love to hear you analysis of my analysis so let me know on social media @kellynashradio
USC at FL -8
Florida has one of the worst Defenses in the country. Currently 116th over all. Pass defense is 101st and rushing d is 112th. So for them it’s about keeping their offense on the field. The best way to do that is run. They’re currently 20th in the country running the ball. It starts with their 6’4” 230lb QB Anthony Richardson. He is faster than Cam Newton was and almost as big (Cam was 6’5” 240 at Auburn). South Carolina is 98th against the run but when the QB is gashing you it’s even harder to stop because there’s another blocker in the way. The other guy in the backfield for Florida is Montrell Johnson Jr who actually is the top rusher with 549 yds. Richardson has 50 less, then there’s a third head to the running monster in Trevor Etienne. Yes he’s the brother of Clemson’s former star Travis. He’s averaging about 5 yards per carry for 469 yards on the season. We’re probably going to need a fumble or 2 to win. Richardson lost a key fumble to TN and Johnson lost a big one to Utah. They were somewhat prone to fumbling averaging about 1 a game. However none of those 9 fumbles have happened in the last 3 games. Perfect against A&M, Georgia, and LSU. They only had 1 fumble lost over the past 6 weeks and it was against Mizzou. If they stay on the ground and don’t turn it over Florida should win by 10 or more points.
Louisville at Clemson -7
I have heard from several legit Clemson fans that they hope they lose this week. The reason is Dabo is so entrenched in himself that he won’t allow outside voices to help the program. If he finishes 13-1 he can entrench himself further. But 2 regular season losses gives them hope that perhaps someone other than a former player and coaches who have worked with Dabo would be allowed to speak into the program. Dabo needs to hire someone to challenge his thinking. That's not the majority of Clemson fans for sure but a few. Those few might get their wish this week. Notre Dame gashed Clemson on the ground with 263 yards! They only threw for about 80. Clemson has been only allowing about 110 ypg on the ground before this. Notre Dame players said they felt like Clemson hadn’t been challenged in the run game and thought they could expose weakness. D Coordinator for Clemson, Wes Goodwin said as much after the game when asked what Notre Dame did differently. “There wasn’t one resounding thing. It was more about our guys getting knocked out of their gaps”. So they were manhandled. And guess what Louisville does best? Manhandle and run the ball. The Cardinals average over 200 ypg on the ground ranking them slightly above the Irish who are at 195. Dabo burned me last week. I’ve never bet against him before but for this week I’m taking the points and Louisville.
Bama at Ole Miss +12
Ole Miss is about the best run team in the country at 267 YPG. Alabama is one of the best run defenses in the country holding teams to about 100 YPG. Somethings gotta give. Bama is going to try and run too. They have a top 25 run game going against Ole Miss who is 79th against the run. Ole Miss QB Jaxson Dart leads the SEC in throws downfield averaging 14.5 per play. Alabama has had some challenges against the pass and are currently about tied with USC at 199 YPG. So this may be a way for Lane to finally one up his old boss. I think Alabama will win this game but I’m going with Ole Miss to cover the points.
A&M at Auburn -2
Dumpster fire bowl! I have to think Jimbo will figure out how to get a win with his 5 stars playing against some 4 stars with a guy who coaching for his 2nd game. A&M wins
UNC at Wake -3.5
Tar Heels are 5-0 in the ACC while Wake Forest is reeling after two straight losses, including an eight-turnover fiasco at Louisville. Only 2 wins so far in conference. So I’m surprised that they would be the favorite. UNC Coach Mac Brown is a squeaker. He squeaks out wins no matter how good or bad the competition. 2 points App State, a TD over Georgia State, FG over Miami, Duke & VA. UNC wins this.
S Miss at Coastal -8.5
Coastal Carolina is 0-5 against the spread this year when it has played as 4.5-point or greater favorites. 8.5 is therefore too much. Take Southern Miss and the points
TCU at Texas -7
Being at home for this one is huge for Texas. If trends continue they will get a fast double digit lead by halftime. TCU's Max Duggan will mix quarterback start completing passes of 10-15 yards in the middle of the field, where the Longhorns have allowed opponents to complete more than 60 percent of their passes this season. This will end up as a nail bitter. I say TCU and the points.
Tie Breaker combined wins this week of Teddy Christopher and myself.
This is a tough week to pick games. So I’m going with a 3 win average plus 1. 10