Teddy Heffner on our sister station Fox Sports 1400 has me on Friday mornings around 9:15 to discuss the biggest college games of the week. If you want to pick the games as well you could win a tailgate package from Mathias Sandwich shop if you beat me! Teddy will give you the details on how to enter. Here's the games he's picked for this week along with the point spreads and the tie break question at the bottom. Would love to hear you analysis of my analysis so let me know on social media @kellynashradio
Mizzou at USC -5
The bottom of the SEC offensively is in descending order; Kentucky, USC, Mizzou, A&M and Vandy. So while the Gamecocks haven’t been producing much it’s been enough to win over two other struggling teams and this Saturday hopefully a 3rd! So not a lot of hope for a high scoring game. At the same time the worst performing D in the SEC in descending order; USC, FL, Ark, TN, Vandy. Good news for the next few games but not good news for this week as Mizzou is only behind Georgia when it comes to YPG given up! In other words the key to victory will either be our special teams scoring, an improved offense or perhaps a D takeaway. We currently rank 113th with 2 fumble takeaways. So it’s probably going to be an interception as we’re 17th in the country with 9 after 7 games. QB Brady Cook is not good. His has just 2 TD passes and 4 INT's in four SEC games. Gamecock D really put some pressure on last week
I also believe that the offense is improving. That may be some garnet colored glasses as we went for 356 against Kentucky and only 286 against A&M. But the
Shane Beamer get the ball into our playmakers hands directive seems to have sparked a little something at half. And while I wish this was a night game as the crowd is louder under the lights (see 8 false starts for A&M) Willie B will be hostile and the sun sets at 6:34 Saturday. So the fourth quarter may feel like a night game. Mizzou’s SEC losses have all been within 1 score so anything the fans can do to help is important. 5 is a big number to cover against a team like this. But let’s do it! Gamecocks 21 Mizzou 14!
Arkansas at Auburn +5
Razorbacks had their best offensive output of the year in their last hanging 52 on BYU! Now a bye week of prep they should be good to go against an Auburn team in turmoil with the news breaking that 3 players were leaving the program because Coach Harsin wouldn’t allow them to redshirt the season. Of their 18 signees in 2021, 9 have now left the program. Harsin will be fired at the end of the year if not sooner. This game could get ugly if the team has quit on him as expected. Arkansas wins big
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FL vs GA -22.5
The worlds largest cocktail party! Well for the Georgia fans this year. As we already explained FL has one of the worst Defenses in the conference. TN and GA not only lead the SEC but the entire country on offense! That spells a lot of points! Georgia beat us by 42, Oregon by 46 and Vandy by 55 so they have no problems running it up. Georgia wins big!
N Dame at Syracuse -3
The Orangemen almost pulled off the upset last week at Clemson. Their fans will love seeing their team at home against a blue chip program. The Orange lead the ACC and come in at 10th nationally in pass defense at 173 yards allowed per game. They also boast a conference-leading and top-20 defense overall at 296.3 yards per game. That should be enhanced at home. Syracuse RB Sean Tucker led the ACC with 1,496 yards last season, and is averaging 100 yards per game this season! Last week they only gave him 5 carries and he averaged over 10 per carry! This week I expect him to get a lot more action and carry Syracuse to a nice win.
Ole Miss at TX A&M +2.5
The 12th man is staggard right now. 3 losses in a row! They have 1 SEC win. They were expecting to compete for the national championship! They haven’t lost 4 in a row since 2005. This is desperate measures. The Aggies have also been on the road longer than any team in America. Their last home game was September 17th. So after 6 weeks some home cooking is needed. Honestly except for a few mistakes last week they should have handled South Carolina. They out rushed, out passed, had more yards per play. Had 23 first downs compared to the Gamecocks 13. Won the time of possession. They outplayed the Gamecocks and lost. Their offense is not a dumpster fire it’s just not good. Clean up some mistakes and they’ll get back to average. Ole Miss on the other hand, is the real deal on offense. Ranked 12th in the nation! Sure the Aggie fans will cause some problems for the Rebels, but a fan base like this is fragile right now. A couple of 3 and outs. Some explosive Rebel plays. That will quiet them down and Kiffin can focus on what he does best, draw up TD’s. Ole Miss for the win!
KY at TN -12.5
Night game in front of 102,000 people who have waited more than a decade for their team to be good again should be insane! TN last won 10 games in 2007. The last 5 years they were only bowl eligible twice and lost the music city bowl. Their only victory was a 1 point win over Indiana in the 2019 Tax Slayer bowl. TN secondary is getting picked apart by everyone including last week Tennessee Martin passed for a season high 316 yards against them. A first round draft pick like QB Will Levis should make them look silly. The problem is Hendon Hooker is having a Heisman type year with a loaded receiver corps. Typically a homefield is factored at 3. I’m going to give this one 6. The point spread scares me and if it was a day game I would say no, but the night game gives me the confidence that TN covers
Pitt at UNC -3.5
UNC at home after a bye week means big win in my opinion. Gene Chizak has to get the Tar Heels D turned around and coming off a bye week is their best chance. Pitt offense isn’t that intimidating ranked 60th in the nation getting 415 ypg. N Carolina D has been horrible ranked 126th giving up 476 ypg. If their bye week improvements can simply hold Pitt to their normal 415 yards or even better yet hold them to 380. They could win by 2 scores. N Carolina
Tiebreaker Marshawn Lloyd rushing yards
Mizzou is one of the best run defenses in the SEC. Georgia, TN, Bama, and Kentucky are the only ones better. Giving up only 126 ypg on the ground is stout. They held Vandy to 47 in their last game! In their near upset of Georgia they held them to 167. Florida figured em out and gouged them for 231, so it’s possible. Beamer said at the half of the A&M game he told OC Satterfield to get the ball in the hands of their playmakers. I expect more focus on getting the ball to Lloyd this week. He had 18 carries last week and averaged 5.1 per carry. Against KY he had 22 carries and averaged 5 per carry. Kentucky and Mizzou are similar in run stopping stats so I expect a similar performance of 110 yards.
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