Teddy Heffner on our sister station Fox Sports 1400 has me on Friday mornings around 9:15 to discuss the biggest college games of the week. If you want to pick the games as well you could win a tailgate package from Mathias Sandwich shop if you beat me! Teddy will give you the details on how to enter. Here's the games he's picked for this week along with the point spreads and the tie break question at the bottom. Would love to hear you analysis of my analysis so let me know on social media @kellynashradio
Tex A&M at USC +3
Texas A&M has a 53.7 percent chance to defeat South Carolina according to the models. Preseason it was over 80%. So the teams have been moving in different directions this year but both are 1-2 in SEC play. Both are also coming off a bye week to get healthy and reassess what’s working and not. Also 2 weeks to scheme against a must win opponent usually means both teams will be able to give their best effort. That should spell trouble for South Carolina as on paper A&M is one of the most talented teams in the country. Their freshman class is the highest rated group in CFB history topping Alabama’s 2021 class. They are in the top 8 for each of the past 4 years in recruiting, while our best year was 2018 when we were ranked 18th. Side note we’re ranked 15th for 2023 at this point. But as we know the best talent doesn’t always win. Jimbo Fisher won a national championship. That is elite company as there’s only been 9 teams to win over the past 20 years. However his seat is warming up as fans become frustrated with their lack of offense. A&M is ranked 112th in offense. They haven’t scored more than 24 points in their last 5 games and are averaging 19.6 PPG. Jimbo Fisher has no answers about Texas A&M’s offense, and he won’t have to provide any for years according to a recent headline in The Athletic. Let’s hope they didn’t figure it out over the break. Let’s hope that we can hold them to their 333 ypg. Let’s hope we get our not much better 389 ypg. And somehow that extra 56 yards turns into more points and a win. We may be able to pull it off as A&M is soft against the run. They give up 189 YPG on the ground and that’s what we do best is rush. We’re not great by any stretch currently ranked 75th but we’re good for about 150 YPG. Rattler’s attempts per game have been dropping. First 2 games he threw 37 and 39 times. Then he shifted down into the mid 20’s. Last game he attempted 19 passes in the win over Kentucky. Marshawn Lloyd has had 360 yards over the past 3 games. He’s a beast who needs to be fed! Th O Line feels like they have something special too and love blocking for him. I feel like we have the better running backs. A&M is using recently demoted QB Haynes King for the injured Max Johnson. So we have a better QB. I believe Shane Beamer is a better coach than Jimbo Fisher. We have a wild home field advantage! You’re dang right I’m calling for a Cock’s upset Saturday night under the lights at Williams-Brice!
Cuse at Clemson -13.5
Only 9 undefeated teams left and here’s2 of em! Clemson run d was exposed by FL State. They had the 4th best in the country before the game but gave up over 200 yards on the ground! Even Dabo said they were exposed missing 26 tackles that he credits to bad angles and tackling. He says that will be corrected for this week. Syracuse Rush D is pretty tight too ranked 11th in the nation. The best Clemson has faced so far was 37th ranked NC State. Clemson will have to solve that puzzle as their pass game is basically tied with the Gamecocks in the mid 60’s. However the rushing has been below par as well currently ranked 54th. The Tigers have won 37 in a row at home and I expect that they will continue that streak but I do expect Syracuse to make it closer that 2 TD’s.
Ole Miss at LSU -1.5
Dang LSU shocked me again last week! This week Brian Kelly has an afternoon home game vs the West’s best #7 in the nation Rebels. Tigers QB Jayden Daniels had a coming out party last week as he threw for 3 TD’s and ran for another 3 vs the Gators. The only other LSU quarterback to account for six touchdowns in one game? Joe Burrow. The Rebels had three players rush for more than 100 yards last week in the win over Auburn, and are tied for second in the nation in plays of 20 or more yards with 50! They average over 500 YPG of offense. Lane can get em going! This is a huge game for both programs and since Lane Kiffin has been there a whole season longer I expect Ole Miss to make a statement and win big 35-28.
Texas at OK State +6
The Longhorns fell back to earth after annihilating Oklahoma the previous week they had to hang on to beat Iowa State. The Cowboys blew a 2 TD lead in the 4th to send it to OT and lose to TCU. Throw out the Oklahoma game and Texas looks pedestrian. Throw out the last quarter of the last game and OK State looked really good. I’m taking the Cowboys!
UCLA at Oregon -6
Oregon has won 21 in a row at home and would be entering the game with a perfect record had they not decided to open against the defending national champions in Atlanta. Chip Kelly knows how hard it is for opponents which is why he isn’t thrilled to have to take his unbeaten Bruins there. Ducks 38-31
Pitt at Louisville -1.5
These 2 teams are evenly matched at just about everything. SOS 58-54. Total Offense 52-42. Passing 70-79. Red Zone conv% 82-84. Pitt has an advantage on Tackles For Loss as well as Sacks Per Game. But this is a night game in Louisville and the Cardinals have slight advantage in the field goal kicking department so I’ll take Louisville
Miss State at Bama -21
You probably never want to have to face Nick Saban after he has lost. That becomes increasingly less attractive when it’s in Denny Bryant stadium…at night. This game has very little to do with Miss State. The Tide were beat by the best offense in CFB because of penalties. 17 for 139 yards! 17 breaks the record for most penalties of a Saban team in a game. The old record was 15…set last month! Alabama is the most penalized team in the nation with 66 this year! However they are facing the 54th ranked offense this week and should beat them even if they decide to break the penalty record again this week. Can they beat them by 3 or more TD’s? I doubt it. Give me Miss State and the points
Tiebreaker A&M total yards
A&M is 112th on offense averaging 333 YPG. They had 186 vs App State. 264 vs the U. 343 vs Arkansas. 388 vs Miss State. 323 vs Bama. So they were moving in the right direction. They’ve also had 2 weeks to clean it up. Gamecocks are 43rd on D giving up 355 YPG . I think A&M will go for 375 this week.