Teddy Heffner on our sister station Fox Sports 1400 has me on Friday mornings around 9:15 to discuss the biggest college games of the week. If you want to pick the games as well you could win a tailgate package from Mathias Sandwich shop if you beat me! Teddy will give you the details on how to enter. Here's the 7 games he's picked for this week along with the point spreads and the tie break question at the bottom. Would love to hear you analysis of my analysis so let me know on social media @kellynashradio
South Carolina at Kentucky +10.5
On paper Kentucky should win. They’re the 13th best team in the country after barely losing a game they should have won on the road to #9 Miss. They’re playing at home and have just got their superstar RB back. But on a different paper South Carolina should win. That other paper is ranking of talent. SC senior class came in 2018 as the 18th best class in CFB. Kentucky was 37th. 2019 was 21-34. 2020 was 19-25. Plus Kentucky landed a transfer QB from Penn State who only had one power 5 scholarship offer from of Penn State. They made that offer last second after hearing from Justin Fields that he wouldn’t be coming. He was never able to beat out Sean Clifford in practice so he entered the portal and almost no one wanted him. Now he’s considered the 2nd best QB in the draft. Chris Rodriguez was ranked the 64th best RB in high school football and he leaves Kentucky as a top 10 NFL RB prospect. Kentucky is a basketball school whose football team plays in a stadium 20 percent smaller than the Gamecocks. Their football team brings in about 35 million per year which is half of South Carolina’s. The Gamecocks have better everything and yet have lost to Kentucky 7 out of the last 8 years. Fans are ticked that our 3 and 4 stars are playing worse than their 2 and 3 stars. That is obviously coaching and now that Shane Beamer is here the belief is that these players are going to start playing up to their potential and beat teams like Kentucky. I don’t see that happening this year….unless the rumors are true that QB Will LEvis can’t play this week due to a foot injury. If you saw his finger injury last week then you know this guy is tough to play through that. No one noticed a foot injury but reports have him in a walking boot now and is a gametime decision. If he plays Kentucky wins 34-23. If he can’t Gamecocks win 30-20. I believe the Gamecock D will be able to tee off on Chris Rodriguez without the legit threat of a passing game. That will give us a couple of extra possessions which leads to an extra TD and 2 less TDs for the Wildcats.
Arkansas at Miss State +8
Noon kickoff on SEC Look for the Hogs to really run for a lot. State gives up 4.2 YPC and teams rush for 118 YPG. Arkansas averages 4.6 per carry and 232 YPG. State isn’t a running or passing team. So that’s balance and hard to defend. The Hogs pass defense is atrocious however giving up over 300 YPG against good teams which is why they are ranked 124th in the country. Miss State will exploit that at some point and win but not cover. I go 35-28. They lost 3 more times and ended the season unranked.
Tenn at LSU -3
Tennessee catches a huge break with an 11a kickoff! They’re also feeling themselves after being top 10 ranked for the first time since Oct 10, 2016. It’s their 6 year anniversary! That was the week their downward spiral began with a 45-38 loss to A&M. I think we history repeat itself. LSU is the best D Tenn has faced this year. The TN D has been exploited with weak FL finally scoring their first offensive TD of the year in week 4 against them and hanging a season high 450 yards off passing on them! The ASU transfer Jayden Daniels has his eyes wide open to exploit this team. I see it something like LSU 35-TN 31. Then the downward spiral hits Knoxville with a loss to Bama, Kentucky, Georgia and sure will throw in SC who got em in 2016 as well so they end the season unranked again.
Clemson at Boston College -20.5
Clemson has beaten BC 11 years in a row. Of course the Tigers win but will they win by 3 touchdowns? After 5 games Clemson averages 41 ppg. Their lowest output was 30 last week against NC State who has the 15th ranked d. BC is ranked 70th. The Tigers run d is amazing averaging less than 70 ypg! So BC will have to score through the air and they aren’t very good at that being ranked 76th in pass offense. This could get ugly with some interceptions and short fields for the Tigers. 45-17
UNC at Miami +3.5
Tar Heels QB Drake Maye is tied for most TDs tossed this year with 19 after 5 games. Miami loves getting burned on big pass plays! They are 129th on plays for than 50 yards and 92nd overall on pass d. Miami QB Tyler Van Dyke got benched last week in a loss against Middle Tenn State. Coach Cristobal said he’ll be the starter again this week but he seems to be regressing. They scored 70 in week 1, 30, then 9. Last week they did get to 31 but he only had 17 against Middle TN State. I honestly surprised it’s only a 3.5 spread and take the Tar Heels to cover easy 38-21.
FL State at NC State +3.5
8 p kickoff
Wolfpack will be happy to be home after their road loss to Clemson. FSU was disappointed in thei loss to Wake Forest. Both teams need to rebound with a win. Wolfpack face a banged up FSU team. Sack leader Jared Verse is in a knee brace and play count so he doesn’t over do it. Starting DT Fabien Lovett is out and LT Robert Scott tried but was unable to go last week so he’ll be diminished at best. FSU has a potent running game led by Treshaun Ward who is currently the 13th in YPC at over 6.5. NC State is currently giving up 94 YPG on the ground. They compiled that stat against .ECU, Charleston Southern, Texas Tech, UConn. Clemson broke off 160 yards of rushing which is about their average of 175 per game. The Tigers basically did what they expected on the ground and Clemson doesn't crack the top 50 in rushing. If FSU does what they typically do on the ground then they will roll. I’m calling for the upset. 27-24 Seminoles!
Texas +7 vs Oklahoma at Cotton Bowl
The most underwhelming Red River Rivalry game in decades. The 1st time neither team is ranked this century. Oklahoma lost their starting QB last week. Texas hasn’t had their starter in several weeks but it appears that he will start against Oklahoma and based on that alone I give the edge to TX 35-27.
Tie breaker combined points scored by USC and Clemson this week
I say 75.