Beat My CFB Picks For A Tailgate Package

Every Friday morning during CFB season I join Columbia sports talk legend Teddy Hefner on his Fox Sports 1400 show around 9:15 to pick some of the biggest games of the week. If you beat my picks you may win a tailgate package from Mathias Sandwich Shop on St Andrews Rd. Text your picks and your answer for the tiebreaker to 803-315-3292

Florida State at Clemson (-2.5) Preview

7:00 PM ET, ACC Network

Florida State (4-4) heads to Death Valley to face Clemson (3-5), who is amazingly favored by 2.5 in a primetime ACC clash. Clemson has been worse at home than the road this year with their only home win coming the 1st week of Sept in a come from behind thriller vs...Troy. The Seminoles dropped a heartbreaker to Miami 28-22, then another to Pitt 34-31, then another to Stanford 20-13. They seemed to rebound against Wake Forest running it up 42-7. Clemson is hoping to stop a surprising 2 game skid and try to figure out how to get to a bowl. This has been a shock to see as they're the defending ACC champs, currently with 11 ACC teams in front of them. The Tigers have been bowl eligible for 26 straight seasons. Currently they're underdogs against #19 Louisville (35% chance of winning) and unranked South Carolina (48% chance of winning) They desperately need this win, handle their cupcake game vs Furman and get an upset to keep that streak alive. The good news is Cade Klubnik says his ankle is almost completely healed after spraining it against BC. Cade is currently 10th in the ACC with a QB rating of 148 8th in completions at 160 and 8th in yards at 1915. He'll need to be better to beat FSU, because despite the Seminoles losing 10 ACC games in a row till they beat Wake last week they are the #1 offense in the country when it comes to YPG at 510. They're led on the ground by the top rushing crew in the conference averaging over 240 YPG! In fact statistically Fl State has an advantage over Clemson in just about every facet of the game including points allowed, 20.6 to 24.1, Sacks 22-19 and yards allowed per game 285-350. Other than it being a night game every thing else favors FSU so that's who I'll take.

Texas A&M at Missouri (+7) Preview

3:30 PM ET, ABC

No. 3 Texas A&M (7-1) rolls into Columbia to face No. 17 Missouri (6-2), with the Tigers getting 7 points at home. The Aggies fell 49-25 to LSU, with Marcel Reed throwing for 325 yards but no Le’Veon Moss (497 season yards). A&M’s D is top-15, allowing 18 PPG, but bent for 380 yards last week. Missouri lost 23-17 in 2OT at Auburn, with Brady Cook efficient but the D allowing 293 YPG. Mizzou’s rush popped early (427 vs. Louisiana-Lafayette), but their O-line’s shaky.

Faurot Field’s crowd keeps it feisty, and Missouri’s top-15 run D tests A&M’s ground game. Reed’s dual-threat keeps the Aggies ahead, but Mizzou hangs tough. Missouri looses but covers as home dogs.

LSU at Alabama (-10) Preview

7:30 PM ET, ABC

No. 20 LSU (5-3) invades Tuscaloosa to battle No. 4 Alabama (7-1), favored by 10 in a primetime SEC showdown. The Tigers got smoked 49-25 by Texas A&M, with Garrett Nussmeier at 197 yards on 34 attempts and the run game nonexistent. LSU’s D is leaky, allowing 24 PPG. Alabama crushed South Carolina 29-22, with Ty Simpson slinging 325 yards (5th nationally) and a 99-yard pick-six sealing it. Tide’s rush is weak at 126 YPG, but their front seven racked up 5 sacks last week.

Bryant-Denny’s night vibe is brutal, and LSU’s missing LB Whit Weeks (ankle) hurts. Alabama’s talent overwhelms, but the spread’s steep. Tigers keep it within 10. LSU covers.

Wake Forest at Virginia (-6.5) Preview

7:00 PM ET, ESPN

Wake Forest (2-6) heads to Charlottesville to face No. 19 Virginia (6-2), favored by 6.5. The Demon Deacons lost 30-29 in OT to Georgia Tech, with their offense scraping by but the D allowing 411 total yards. Wake’s secondary is soft, giving up 260 pass YPG. Virginia stunned North Carolina 17-16 in OT, with QB Chandler Morris tossing 2 TDs and the D sacking 3 times. Cavs’ 5-0 ACC record (despite a non-conference loss to NC State) keeps them in the title hunt.

Scott Stadium’s night energy and Virginia’s pass rush (11 sacks on season) rattle Wake’s O-line. Demon Deacons fight, but Cavs’ balance wins out. Virginia covers at home.

BYU at Texas Tech (-10) Preview

12:00 PM ET, ABC

No. 11 BYU (8-1) travels to Lubbock to face No. 14 Texas Tech (6-2), favored by 10 in a Big 12 blockbuster. The Cougars edged Iowa State 41-27, with freshman QB Bear Bachmaier clutch but the D allowing late yards. BYU’s 7-0 start ended, but they’re still top-12. Tech rolled Oklahoma State 42-0, with Behren Morton back from injury, throwing for 291 yards and 2 TDs. Red Raiders’ D is elite, leading the FBS at 3.7 yards per play.

Jones AT&T Stadium hosts GameDay, and Tech’s offense (349 yards from Morton vs. Utah) exploits BYU’s secondary. Cougars’ road test is tough. Texas Tech covers big.

Georgia at Mississippi State (+8.5) Preview

12:00 PM ET, ESPN

No. 5 Georgia (8-1) heads to Starkville to face Mississippi State (3-5), getting 8.5 points at home. The Bulldogs crushed Florida 24-20 in Jacksonville, with Gunner Stockton at 70.5% completion and just 1 INT all season. UGA’s D leads the SEC with 25 sacks. Mississippi State fell 45-38 in OT to Texas, with their offense popping at 500 yards but the D a sieve (40+ PPG allowed in losses). MSU’s ground game struggles against elite fronts.

Davis Wade Stadium adds some bite, but Georgia’s trenches dominate. Stockton’s efficiency and UGA’s pass rush overwhelm. Bulldogs cover on the road.

Florida at Kentucky (+3) Preview

7:30 PM ET, SEC Network

Florida (4-4) heads to Lexington to face Kentucky (3-5), getting 3 points as road dogs. The Gators, post-Billy Napier firing, stunned Texas 29-21 under interim Billy Gonzales, with DJ Lagway throwing 223 yards but plagued by 6 INTs this season. Florida’s run D is porous (5.2 YPC allowed). Kentucky edged Texas 16-13 in OT, with Cutter Boley’s 220 yards and a TD showing grit. Wildcats’ rush is solid at 387 yards from Seth McGowan, but their O-line allowed 3 sacks.

Kroger Field’s crowd keeps it close, and Kentucky’s home dog vibe (2-1 ATS) bites. Lagway’s turnovers hurt against UK’s top-20 run D. Kentucky covers and wins outright.

Tie breaker: FL State total yards against Clemson D.

As previously mentioned Clemson gives up an average of 350 YPG. FSU averages 510. We should throw out the cupcakes. But they opened the year with 382 vs Bama, 404 vs the U, 514 in an OT game vs Virginia, 415 vs Pitt, 444 vs Stanford, and 421 last week vs Wake. So I'm going to respect the Clemson home crowd causing some disruption and the fact that they had an extra week to prep for this and hold them to 390.