Week 4 CFB Picks

Friday Mornings Around 9:15 I jump on our sister station Fox Sports Radio to pick this weeks biggest games with local sports legend Teddy Heffner We have to pick against the spread. Those are the point spreads Teddy found earlier in the week so the current spread is irrelevant for our contest. Now if you'd like to pick your 7 and see if you do better than me, you could win a Mathias Sandwich Tailgate Special. You just text your picks to 803-315 3292 to be entered. You don't need to explain your picks like I do below.

This weeks games

Akron +27 at South Carolina 7:30 ESPN+

Looks like LaNorris Sellers is good to go as of this writing. Had he played in the second half I have no doubt despite the refs incompetence, we win the LSU game. He’s not needed to in order to beat the Zips, but we can see him growing in confidence and competence with almost every set of downs. More reps will help him get ready for Ole Miss and their 22nd ranked Defense (LSU is 91st) Akron has a 1 game win streak after beating Colgate last week. They started the season with losses of 52-6 and 49-17 from Ohio State and Rutgers. With the 120th ranked Offense the Gamecocks D should feast. Look for turnovers again, that hopefully won’t be neutralized with late flags. We’ve scored more than 30 the last 2 weeks and I wouldn’t be surprised to go over 40 this week. Final score something like 45-13. So the 27 is worth giving and taking the Cocks!

NC State +21 at Clemson Noon ABC

Clemson is in such a great spot. Coming off the bye week, at home, facing a dramatically inferior opponent. Gamecock fans are hoping Clemsoning will be trending by 2p but I don’t see it. NC State was losing big at the half last week to LA Tech. The current crop of Tigers may not be as good as the group form last decade when they won 2 titles (2016 & 18) but they all have the same pride. They all believe they are worthy of a Natty.  They also see they are ranked #21 with the only currently ranked opponent on the schedule being #19 Louisville. Almost impossible to finish in the top 12 with this schedule so they need style points. They will lay the hammer down with a performance much like TN had on NC State. Though they aren’t at the level of the Vols I see a 42-14 type of game. Gimme Clemson!

Florida -4.5 at Miss State Noon ESPN

This is a legit dumpster fire of a game. Gator fans have nothing to smile about as the Napier era is just waiting to for a buyout. Big dollar boosters have allegedly pooled the 26 million the school will need to pay Billy if they fire him this year. Bulldog fans can at least hope for better days ahead because it’s a new coach implementing a new system that requires different skill sets that the current team members were recruited for under the late great Mike Leach. Jeff Lebby became Head Coach 10 months ago and promises a team with explosive plays is coming. He built that rep as the OC at Ole Miss & Oklahoma. Last week his offense posted 17 points against Toledo in a half empty home loss. I believe there is a legit chance Florida has more fans at this game. If Billy can’t win this game he may get his 26 mil on the tarmac and told to walk home. I’ll take Florida

Arkansas -4 at Auburn 3:30 ESPN

ESPN sure knows how to pick em! Arkansas needed a come from behind victory to sneak past UAB! Auburn suffered an embarrassing loss to Cal. That game in front of a shocked Jordan Hare stadium wasn’t even really in question as Cal took the lead early in the 2nd and never looked back. So the Tigers 2 wins this year have been over Alabama A&M and New Mexico. I like home underdogs and ESPN FPI predictor gives them a 58.9% of winning outright. I’m rolling with Auburn.

UCLA +23 at LSU 3:30 ABC

I’m still feeling like the refs robbed us of a great victory last week but have to admire the toughness of LSU. They got throat punched 17-0 in a very hostile environment and didn’t collapse. Their fans will be up to welcome them home and give the Bruins the loudest game they will be in this year. UCLA coming off a humiliating home loss to Indiana. Loss isn’t a strong enough description for what happened in the 42-13 beat down. They gave up 21 in both halves and scored 7 in the first 6 in the second. UCLA has the 127th scoring offense. Which means they may not score in this game. Tigers easily cover.

Tennessee -7 at Oklahoma 7:30 ABC

This is like a movie! TN Coach Josh Huepel, who is a legend in Oklahoma after leading the Sooners to their last national title in 2000, was fired because he failed so miserably against Brent Venables Defense. In 2014 the Sooners were in the Russell Athletic Bowl against Clemson. Josh had no answers and the Sooners only managed 6 points that day. Venables literally ended his career at the school he loved. Bob Stoops had coached him to the title. Hired him as an assistant and then fired him. Josh said it was the worst day in his professional life. He was replaced by Lincoln Riley who eventually got the job Josh had dreamed of. He was sent to rebuild his career at Utah State, UCF and Mizzou. Finally landing a top program HC at TN many years after he had expected to be leading his beloved Sooners. Now he has an opportunity at revenge. 10 years in the making! Being a TD underdog at home is a rarity for Oklahoma. But honestly I think it should be more. The nation's highest-scoring offense at 63.7 points per game going on the road to face a team that eeked out a 16-12 win over Houston 2 weeks ago and honestly struggled more than the final score shows 34-19 last week against Tulane. Gimme the Vols!

GA Tech -10.5 at Louisville 3:30 ESPN 2

Tech head coach Brent Key is living the dream. He left Alabama as the O line coach for the same position at his alma matter. Things fell in place for him to become the head coach of his dream school a couple of years ago. He opened this season in Ireland knocking off (at the time) #10 FSU! The only blemish on this season is a 31-28 road loss to Syracuse. But Syracuse isn’t this years Louisville. Louisville is #2 in the nation in sacking the QB. 4.5 per game! They have the 8th ranked defense.  Louisville has the 4th ranked offense! Like in every metric Louisville is elite. Time of Possession, YPC, TO Margin, Scoring D, Scoring O. They do it all and they’re at home. The Cardinals cover.

Cal -2.5 at FSU 7p ESPN 2

Few people want to see this game. FSU fans don’t! Nothing can go write. Win and so what. Lose another and it’s OMG! I guess the FSU haters and the Cal fans will be glued to the deuce Saturday night. Cal beat Fresno State last week but was very sloppy! They had 12 penalties. They gave up 6 sacks.  They were 0-3 in 4th and 1 attempts. Their FG kicker is 2 for 6 on the year including a missed 37 yarder last week. As bad as FSU is feeling right now, this is probably the best 3-0 opponent they could hope to face. I have nothing to base this pick on other than the field is filled with 4 and 5 star athletes for FSU and they have to win this game. I’m taking the Noles.

Tiebreaker: Cade Klubnik passing yards vs NC State.

NC State has the 100th ranked pass D. They average 244 yards allowed. Clemson has the 25th ranked pass game averaging 301 ypg! Now it’s weird because they had last week off. So it’s only 2 games and Cade threw for 146 against GA but 460 vs App state. I’m going to split the “average” on both NC State D and Cade’s O to come up with 275 yards.