Week 3 CFB Picks

Friday Mornings Around 9:15 I jump on our sister station Fox Sports Radio to pick this weeks biggest games with local sports legend Teddy Heffner We have to pick against the spread. Those are the point spreads Teddy found earlier in the week so the current spread is irrelevant for our contest. Now if you'd like to pick your 7 and see if you do better than me, you could win a Mathias Sandwich Tailgate Special. You just text your picks to 803-315 3292 to be entered. You don't need to explain your picks like I do below.

This weeks games

LSU -7 at USC Noon on ABC

I did a deep dive on the South Carolina LSU game that you can read here. The short of it is LSU has some major pieces missing. Their starting RB & DT are out. They have almost abandoned the run game since losing their RB in week one. A lot of folks are talking about "good on good" in the sense that the LSU O line and Gamecocks D Line are the strengths of their teams. But I give SC the advantage if the D can think pass first. South Carolina seems to be returning to their old reputation of DBU. Coach Torrian Gray has improved the secondary by allowing fewer passing yards every season since joining the Gamecocks 3 years ago. Vicari Swain, Nick Emmanwori, Jalon Kilgore, and O'Donnell Fortune have all made huge plays this year. On Offense we've all heard the complaints about LaNorris Sellers throwing high. But something we haven't heard is that on throws of 10 yards or more LaNorris has a PFF grade of 92.8! He's better throwing long than short at this point. LSU D is most susceptible to long throws. They have surrendered 88 plays this year of 10 yards or more making them 6th worst in the nation. And if it's raining OC Dowell Loggains is more likely to throw as his philosophy is that DB's don't know where the receivers are going and if it's slippery out that gives the receiver an even bigger advantage. I'll take the Gamecocks and the points. (I'd probably take them straight up as even ESPN's FPI predictor, places South Carolina with a 49% chance of winning this football game.

TX A&M -4.5 at Florida 3:30 on ABC

Both teams started the year with humiliating home losses. Miami mopped the floor with FL. Gator D surrendered 41 that day! A&M had a closer loss to Notre Dame, but that loss looks horrific after Notre Dame was manhandled at home by Northern IL. The simulations predict Texas A&M will defeat Florida by a projected score of 30 to 27. Billy Napier desperately needs this win! The next 2 weeks they'll be expected to win so if they're at 3-3 heading into TN, KY, GA, TX he might not make it to LSU and FL State. That's another reason I expect them to lose. He's desperate and is more likely to try something crazy. I'll take the Aggies and the points.

Georgia -24 at Kentucky 7:30 on ABC

Georgia has beat Kentucky 14 in a row. This was going to be the Gameday location but after the humiliation the Wildcats suffered last week, not only isn't Gameday coming but a lot of fans. There are currently hundreds of tickets available for this game at $50 or less. And that's after Bulldog fans have bought thousands! Football Power Index computer simulates every NCAA college football game 20,000 times and uses key analytics from both teams to predict outcomes based on a projected scoring margin per game. They give Kentucky a 7% chance of winning. So I'm confident GA wins. But beating them by more than 3 TD's and a FG? Too much. I'll take KY and the points.

W Virginia -2.5 at Pitt 3:30 on ESPN 2

If you're looking for a ton of offense this should be the game for you! WV secondary has been horrible so far and last week gave up over 300 yards in the air to Albany. Pitt's D was trounced for 216 yards on the ground last week! Because of the inconsistences in both D's and the likelihood of a shootout (over/under is 60.5) I'm just going to take the home-team Pitt to cover.

N Dame -10 at Purdue 3:30 on CBS

Total must win for the Irish. After their A&M victory the pundits had them clear sailing to their battle with Southern Cal at the end of the season. That was upended by a dumpster fire of a game at home to Northern Illinois last week. A game that the Irish had their only lead of 1 point somewhere in the third and still couldn't stop Northern Illinois from driving to win on a fg. They gave up over 300 yards of offense while their offense could only manage 286 yards for the day. They lost every meaningful stat. Time of Possession, 1st downs, Passing yards, rushing yards, turnovers, total plays, punts. The only thing they tied was penalties. Both had 3 for 35 yards. In other words this wasn't a fluke freak occurrence caused by pick 6's and scoops and scores. The Fighting Irish were bullied by Northern IL who were beat by Toledo, Tulsa, Central MI, and Ball State last season. I have no confidence in the Irish at this point and while I believe they'll win I'll take the home dog to cover.

Wash St + 4.5 at Washington 3:30 on Peacock

It's called the Apple Cup and apparently TV execs don't believe Americans care about it because it's only on Peacock. Last week Wash State ran for over 300 yards vs Texas Tech! 197 of that came from their QB. I imagine Washington is going to spot him this week and force him to throw. On the Huskies side Will Rogers has completed 41 of 52 passes for 511 yards with five touchdowns and only been sacked twice. Washington has the better QB and they're playing on a "neutral field" which is 6 miles from UW campus and over 200 miles from Wash State. I'll take Washington to cover.

Colorado -7 at CO State 7:30 on CBS

Colorado has been awash in controversy this week with rumors swirling about Coach Prime ordering the band to not play the schools fight song after TD's so the DJ could play his son Shedeur's new song. Sanders slammed that report at a press conference this week but didn't have any comment on Stephen A Smith saying that Deion has become a recruiting liability in Colorado. Crediting him for landing some big stars which brought attention and excitement to the program but the inability to get less glamorous stars like on the O line which is filled with 2-3 stars who are noticeably smaller that the opposing teams not only makes this team difficult to win, but future recruitment of 5 star skill position players almost impossible. Smith says next year will really show a drop off not only in H.S. recruits (which only make up about 20% of his last 2 classes) and the transfer students who will opt for safer routes. This is not the kind of distraction his team needs going into their heated rivalry game! Last year Prime felt insulted by the State coach and made it personal. That game had the eyes of the nation on it and it ended up in double overtime! Coach Horton has thrown it down again saying "I don’t feel like we left it all on the field last year, because we should have murdered them guys. They came out with that attitude as they were on top of the world, and this ain’t no Cinderella story. We are actually a lot better team then they are and we’re coming for revenge." I'm taking the home under-dog again but if I was pressed I'd probably take State to win this year.

Tiebreaker: How many rushing yards does LSU get against the Gamecocks

LSU is ranked 116th in rushing which is shocking when you feature what is at least one of the top 5 O lines in the game. They have averaged 88 ypg but I think if it's raining they may try a few more runs this week so I'll put them at 105 for the game.