The Morning Rush

The Morning Rush

The Morning Rush wakes you up on 97.5 WCOS every weekday morning. Drive to work while you listen to Jonathon Rush and Kelly Nash.Full Bio

 

Beat My CFB Picks For This Week & Win A Prize

Friday Mornings Around 9:15 I jump on our sister station Fox Sports Radio to pick this weeks biggest games with local sports legend Teddy Heffner We have to pick against the spread. Those are the point spreads Teddy found earlier in the week so the current spread is irrelevant for our contest. Now if you'd like to pick your 7 and see if you do better than me, you could win a Mathias Sandwich Tailgate Special. You just text your picks to 803-315 3292 to be entered. You don't need to explain your picks like I do below.

This weeks games

Scar -3.5 at Vanderbilt 4:15 SEC Network

It’s funny that this is about point spreads and not who will necessarily win. In essence the Gamecocks could win 27-24 but not cover. This season both Vandy and Carolina have failed to cover the spread twice. The points scored per game are almost identical. 30.3 for Vandy, 30.5 for Carolina. Points allowed 21 for Vandy 19 for Carolina.  Only one stat really jumps off the page and is of great concern for Gamecock fans. Turnovers allowed. Vandy has only had 5 while the Gamecocks near the bottom with 13. When they lose the turnover battle in a game the Cocks are 0-3. A lot of those came early this year. LaNorris Sellers was responsible for 7 fumbles in the first 6 games. None the last 2. He was also throwing an interception about every game. None in the last 2. The Gamecocks became a run team against A&M. They had averaged 101 YPG but more than doubled it to 286. Sellers ran for 106 on mostly designed runs. Sanders exploded for 145. As for the history fans expect to beat Vandy. The Gamecocks have only lost to the Commodores 4 times in history and have not lost since 2008. But this isn’t your father’s Vanderbilt, your older brothers or even last years, when the Gamecocks blew them out 47-6. Since James Franklin left Vandy has only won 6 games in 2 seasons, most recently 8 years ago.  They’ve already matched that this season.  The #1 reason for their turnaround is transfer QB Diego Pavia. Not that their pass game is amazing. Actually it’s not. They are 107th . They’re not a great rushing team either ranked 77th. But Pavia seems to make plays when needed and doesn’t turn it over much. It needs to be noted that he is listed as probable for Saturday. The reason is “general wear and tear” according to Clark Lea. Avia has taken some serious shots against Kentucky and Texas recently and didn’t look so great against Auburn last week only going 9-22. He’s trying to get through this week and a much needed bye week next week.  Their D is much improved. Ranked 44th. None of these stats should alarm us. Looking at their recent games Vandy held Texas to 27, Kentucky 13, and Auburn to 7. They are getting better every game which should alarm us. If I’m a Vandy fan I would note South Carolina is also getting better every week. Based on that and the confidence LaNorris picked up the last 2 games, plus Rocket Sanders being the healthiest he’s been all year you’ve got to take the Gamecocks. I’m imagining that the Dowell Loggains game plan will include a bunch of QB designed runs to help force lane discipline on the D line and help create more time for when they need to pass. On the D Clayton White should be able to send 4 and create havoc in the backfield and allow the back 7 to clean up pass coverage. I’m actually taking the Cocks to win in double digits.

Clemson -6.5 at VA Tech 3:30 on ESPN

First time in forever Clemson hasn’t been a double-digit favorite against an ACC opponent. That’s because the bloom is off the rose. Or perhaps the offense has been exposed by Louisville. In last weeks prediction I took the Cardinals because all of Clemson’s blowout victories have come against bad defenses. Wake Forest is 119 App State 116, Stanford 109, Virginia 106 & FL State 96. The best they had faced was #86 NC State. Louisville isn’t great on D but #72 is a step up. A step they weren’t prepared to make. This week they’ll have an even bigger step to take. On the road against the #60th ranked d. Phil Mafah got his yards last week averaging about the same as his season totals at 5.7 YPC 171 yards on the night and 2 TD’s. It was the pass game. The receivers aren’t good enough to get open on average or better defenders. Klubnik who had thrown for over 300 yards the last 2 games only got 228. More importantly took 2 sacks. His QBR had averaged 79 against ACC competition dramatically dropped to 45. His average pass attempt had been 8 yards and that dropped to 4.1. So I really think the run game will be fine for the Tigers but worry the passing game won’t be where it needs. Looking at just pass D the Hokies seem to have been built to stop passes more than the runs. #45 in the nation and only allowing 205 YPG. If Clemson can’t crack that code they will have to produce the majority of their yards on the ground. The Hokies seem able to score despite their 4 losses and a wobble in points scored weeks ago only putting 21 up against the Ramblin Wreck. I credit more of that to safe play calling as GA Tech only scored 6 all day. The rest of their games they’re usually in the 30’s including 31 last week in their loss to Syracuse. So I expect them to get about 30 again this week as Clemson d is only ranked 51st. Can Clemson go for 38 or so to cover the spread? Doubt it. Taking the Hokies and the points.

Georgia -2.5 at Ole Miss 3:30 on ABC

Last year the Dawgs whooped the Rebels 52-17. Lane Kiffin hasn’t forgotten that and says a large part of the off season was retooling his defense just for Georgia.“We’re better defensively than we were a year ago, and very different in the front six, with the four D-linemen and two backers, we’re a lot different there, and hopefully that will help us.” Lane is also hoping the change from Athens to Oxford will help. “We went into Georgia, the place was electric in the warmups 30 minutes before kickoff. They put us at night there, it will be earlier here. It would be awesome for our fans to have the same type of energy and impact, because that was definitely an impact a year ago.” Combine that with the fact that Georgia hasn’t really looked like Georgia this year. They seem to be struggling against lesser caliber teams. They played so bad last week it got Billy Napier a vote of confidence from Florida, who at this moment seem highly unlikely to even make a bowl game.  Their QB Carson Beck has tied Kentucky’s QB (Georgia transfer) Brock Vandergriff for most interceptions thrown in the conference at 11. But here’s the thing about Kirby Smart. The last regular season loss to a team not named Alabama was a 2019 loss to…the South Carolina Gamecocks. (2020 season doesn’t count). He figures out how to get wins. 2.5 isn’t enough of a spread for me to take this home underdog, though I imagine the victory won’t be much bigger.

Alabama -3 at LSU 7:30 on ABC

Both teams are 6-2 heading into this. One will still be in the CFB playoff discussion after this game. Alabama was underdog at home for the first time in decades against Georgia and won! They then fell apart. Losing at Vandy. Shoulda lost to S Carolina and did lose to TN. They straightened their Defense out for Mizzou and as I often say “A good D helps create a good O”. They won that game 34-0 and took the next week off. Will a fixed Alabama whose had an extra week of rest arrive at Death Valley Sat night? If so look out! LSU also shoulda lost to S Carolina but seemed to fix things the next week when they pummeled UCLA. A very impressive win over Ole Miss and a beat down of Arkansas followed. But what the heck happened 2 weeks ago? A&M rolled em and pretty much did it all in one half of football when they switched to a running QB. Milroe rushed for 50 in his last game but is good enough to run for more if it’s there. Ironically LSU also got a bye week so at least they’re rested and hopefully figured out how to stop a running QB.  Bama has forced three or more takeaways in the four of the last five games. LSU has thrown 9 interceptions in 8 games. Could 1 or 2 Saturday be the difference? Maybe. But over the last 20 years the 2 teams with best home records at night have been Alabama and LSU. This is an LSU home game and so I’m taking the Tigers.

Oklahoma +1 at Mizzou 7:45 on SEC Network

Oklahoma has become a disaster. 88th scoring offense. 66th passing defense. They’re not performing well on either side of the ball. Taking that show on the road usually spells defeat. But Mizzou is likely not going to have their QB as Brady Cook as he seems to still be recovering from an ankle injury. Best case scenario he is back but hasn’t played a full game since October the snoozer against Umass almost a month ago. So he will be rusty. Without him Alabama shut them out and then they got the bye week. Mizzou’s D hasn’t been too opportunistic either with only 1 interception and 2 fumble recoveries since conference play began back on September 21st . This could be a very boring game also indicated by the 42.5 Over/Under. If you believe in momentum Mizzou’s last game was the afore mentioned Bama blowout while the Sooners are coming off a 52-14 win…over Maine. Perhaps the bye week helped reset the Tigers plus they’re at home. I’ll take em. 

Wofford-1 at Furman 2pm on ESPN+

2 fancy upstate schools in the SoCon going to get down in the dirt. Last year the Terriers upset the Paladines when they ranked 2nd in the country, 19-13 thanks to a 64 yard scoop & score. Wofford had to rally last week to come back after going down 13-7 to Samford in the 3rd quarter but pulled out a 17-13 win. Furman just gave VMI their first win of the season last week going down 21-17. Furman seems to be a shadow of themselves compiling a pitiful 2-6 record this year. Wofford hasn’t been much more impressive at 4-5 on the season. It’s a rivalry game so anything can happen, but I’ll take the Terriers. 

Colorado -3.5 at Texas Tech 4p on Fox

The Buffalos come in well rested off the bye week and celebrating a bump up in the ratings to #21. That can happen when you’re off but 7 ranked teams lose on the same day. The Red Raiders are feeling pretty good about themselves as well after knocking off one of those ranked teams in #17 Iowa State. ESPN game simulator ran 20,000 games and reports that Texas Tech only won 36.4% over Colorado. It’s hard to imagine Coach Prime letting this one get away. Possibly the 2 best players in all of college football on the same team make it must see TV. Over under is 62.5 so points won’t be a problem here. I like home dogs to cover but Colorado is too explosive in my opinion.

Tiebreaker: Vandy’s total yards

Based partly on the Diego issues their YPG have dropped the last 3 SEC contests. 288 vs Kentucky, 269 vs Texas and only 227 vs Auburn. Now Texas is a beast on D ranked #1 in the country. Kentucky and Auburn are both pretty good as well 35th and 21 respectively. Gamecocks are better than both of them and took about 100 yards last week of A&M's average YPG so I'm going to put Vandy at 230 for the game.

South Carolina v Oklahoma

NORMAN, OKLAHOMA - OCTOBER 19: Tight end Maurice Brown II #44 of the South Carolina Gamecocks celebrates after scoring a two-point conversion to make the score 32-3 in the second quarter at Gaylord Family Oklahoma Memorial Stadium on October 19, 2024 in Norman, Oklahoma. South Carolina won 35-9. (Photo by Brian Bahr/Getty Images)Photo: Brian Bahr / Getty Images Sport / Getty Images


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