Friday Mornings Around 9:15 I jump on our sister station Fox Sports Radio to pick this weeks biggest games with local sports legend Teddy Heffner We have to pick against the spread. Those are the point spreads Teddy found earlier in the week so the current spread is irrelevant for our contest. Now if you'd like to pick your 7 and see if you do better than me, you could win a Mathias Sandwich Tailgate Special. You just text your picks to 803-315 3292 to be entered. You don't need to explain your picks like I do below.
This weeks games
USC +21 at Alabama Noon ABC
Last time Alabama lost 2 games in a row was 2013. They lost the Iron Bowl to the eventual SEC Champs and then their bowl game to Oklahoma. The only time Kalen DeBoer has lost 2 in a row was his first season at Washington. He coached there 2 years and lost 3 games, so he cleaned it up pretty quickly. That 3rd loss in year 2 was for the national championship against Michigan. Everyone has made a huge deal out of Alabama’s lack of creativity on D. A video went viral on social media from a Sports Illustrated contributor breaking down the Vandy film. He shows 3 plays in the “Cover 1 robber with double mugs”. I have to laugh that so many people believe a guy who has never coached a game has cracked the code on how to beat Alabama. Ironically this guy’s main job is covering Georgia football, and you’d think he’d be at least a little bit self-conscious mocking how easy it is to crack Alabama’s scheme when the week previous Kirby, Bobo and the Georgia staff were befuddled by it. But anyways the internet has now got it solved so South Carolina can just run what Vandy ran and let’s put up a W. That is probably about as bad an idea as anyone has ever had. Football 101 says teams’ scheme for their opponents’ personnel. Then there’s changes after the series. Halftime adjustments etc. As far as South Carolina execution has gone this year, it’s not been good. Our passing game is 110th in the nation. So we have to be a run team and we are better but not good at 43rd. Currently our rush leaders are Rocket Sanders with 315, QB LaNorris Sellers with 200 yards. and backup QB Robbie Ashford has 172. When the QB position is the rush leader on your team something isn’t right. The thing that isn’t right is the offensive line. The reason Alabama is more than a 3 TD favorite is because our offense is unable to get a push or protect in the pass game. Combine that with penalties. Wow! Currently ranked 119th for yards penalized this season. This puts extra stress on the D which is crumbling a bit under the pressure but is still ranked 22nd in the country 6th in the SEC. 90.9 percent of the computer’s most recent 20,000 simulations for this game Alabama wins. After we crapped the bed against FL in 2022 no one thought we could give TN much of a game. We were 22.5 point underdogs in that game. After we won Cam Smith was asked what the leaders and coaches had done differently for TN. He said “nothing just drop ya nuts”. This is drop ya nuts time for the Gamecocks. But till we see something different I’m picking Alabama to cover.
Clemson -20 at Wake Forest Noon ESPN
Clemson has run off 15 in a row vs Wake Forest and no reason to believe it won’t be sweet 16 before dinner on Saturday. Wake has a very poor and porous defense. Against their 4 FBS opponents they give up an average of 35.5 points per game. They are worst in the conference and 124th in the nation. And now wonder with the average play going for over 6 yards! Clemson has averaged 48 points per game their last 4. This has the makings of an epic kind of blowout. So give me the Tigers to cover.
TX -13.5 vs Oklahoma 3:30 ABC
What was a pretty tall order for Oklahoma to begin with, just got a lot taller with the news that team leading receiver Deion Burks is out for a soft tissue injury. Deion is the 5th receiver out for the Sooners! Qwinn Ewers is back at starter for the Longhorns has already passed for 691 yards and eight touchdowns in 2.5 games. Coaches still say Quinn is better than backup Arch Manning which is hard to believe as he has passed for 901 yards and nine touchdowns in his 2.5 games. The last time TX was the #1 team heading into this game was 1984. This past decade has been Oklahoma dominant with a 3-7 record for Texas but they did win the last one and on paper should win this one. Their offense rates among the best in the nation. Oklahoma's, meanwhile, is the worst in the SEC and one of only four nationally to average fewer than 300 yards per game. The Longhorns' defense rates better than Oklahoma across the board, both in raw metrics and advanced stats. Texas holds opponents to the No. 12 success rate in the nation, while Oklahoma sits at No. 34. Oklahoma is better against the run, but the Longhorns' passing defense is far more effective. It is the Red River Rivalry though. Since 2013 there’s only been 2 wins of more than 2 TD’s. It’s usually close and my gut says Oklahoma will cover.
Ole Miss -3 at LSU 7:30 ABC
Who do the Gamecock fans want to win in this the Magnolia Bowl? Ole Miss has not won in Death Valley since 2008, but the Rebels have won two of the last three meetings. Of course getting a win at Death Valley at night is considered on of the hardest accomplishments in sports. Since 2005 LSU is 45-4 in home night games. LSU is coming into this game as possibly the most rested team in America. Last week was a bye. The week before was a G-5 team (South Alabama). They have been at home since they played in Columbia back on September 14th. I’m taking Brian Kelly and 3 weeks of prep at home to get this win!
Ohio State -3.5 at Oregon 7:30 NBC
#2 at #3. This feels like a playoff game. It’s massive! Oregon hasn’t seen anything like this offense. By far the best offense they’ve see is Boise State and they gave up 34 to them! Granted Ohio State hasn’t faced anyone like Oregon either but they are crushing teams so far. Their smallest margin of victory this year was over Iowa, 35-7. Oregon is just 1-4 against the spread as an underdog, and they’re also 0-3 against the spread this season. Oregon isn’t as good as gamblers think they are. Ohio State for the win
GA Tech -6 at UNC Noon CW Network
You know the ACC is down when there’s a conference game that ESPN has the rights to and they chose UMass vs Mizzou for ESPN 2 and allow the CW to carry this one. The CW has the rights to 13 football games from the ACC and even with that deal struck last year the added income” will still bring each team 38 million this year and 39 next. Meanwhile the SEC and Big 10 teams will be getting around 75 million each. But then again when you look at the ratings for last year, SEC teams had 29.% of all CFB tv viewership and Big 10 had exactly 28%. ACC only accounted for 13.6% behind the Big 12 got 14.7%. Sidenote for TV viewership only Fl State has a legit gripe as they averaged 3.9 million viewers per game. A distant 2nd was Clemson at 2.9, grouped in with Miami at 2.7 and Duke at 2.65 million. UNC, GA Tech and Louisville are the next tier around 1.8 million per game. Then it starts dropping pretty quick after that till you hit Virginia and Wake Forest at about 800,000 per game. For comparison, A&M USC, and Ole Miss are the same tier around 2.7 million per game. Bama is all alone at over 6 million per game with GA a distant 2nd at 4.7 million per game. The 3 least watched SEC programs are Vandy, Arkansas and Miss State but they all average around 2 million per game!
FL +15.5 at Tenn 7PM ESPN
Florida has gone 17-3 against TN the last 20 years, but it feels like TN has the better team the past few years. Gators will try to throw off the D with a 2 QB rotation featuring Graham Mertz and D.J. Lagway. The last 2 games have gone well for the QB’s. Mertz has completed 86.4% of his passes for 380 yards with four passing touchdowns and no interceptions. Meanwhile, Lagway completed all 11 of his pass attempts for 126 yards. He also rushed for 33 yards on six attempts (5.5 yards per carry). Those stats have led to 2 wins! TN coming off a huge loss to Arkansas where their QB Nico Iamaleava was only able to go 16 of 28 for 156 yards. Thankfully their run game was pretty productive getting close to 200 on the ground but still only able to produce 14 points. Neyland stadium is one of the biggest in the world and TN has sold out their last 13 home games. So expect about 100,000 of the 101,915 people there to be giving FL a hard time that night. Coming off an embarrassing loss I expect a blowout for the Vols.
Tiebreaker USC total yards vs Alabama
Alabama has given up an average of 128 ypg on the ground and 207 ypg through the air which is 335 per game. Gamecocks have average 148 YPG on the ground and 176 through the air so about 324 per game. I’ll put a hopeful 360 for the Gamecocks this week
EAST LANSING, MICHIGAN - SEPTEMBER 28: Will Howard #18 of the Ohio State Buckeyes drops back to pass during the first half against the Michigan State Spartans at Spartan Stadium on September 28, 2024 in East Lansing, Michigan. (Photo by Rey Del Rio/Getty Images)Photo: Rey Del Rio / Getty Images Sport / Getty Images