Every Friday morning I join Teddy Heffner host of "Talking Sports" on Fox Sports 1400. Teddy gives away tailgate package from Mathias Sandwich shop to someone who can beat our picks. The picks include point spreads so for example if a team is a 10 point underdog and they lose by 9 then they have won. If you'd like to text your picks to enter get them in before Saturday noon on the Talking Sports Text Line at 803-315-3292. Now here's this weeks games and my picks.
Rough week last week as the Gamecocks didn’t cover. Plus the Razorbacks & Tigers scored upsets! I called the NC State, Kentucky, Ole Miss & Bama games correct. But you guys expect at least 5 of 7 from me! Let’s try to get back on track.
Vandy at USC -14.
Gamecocks have won 14 in a row vs Vandy which is like WOW! Speaking of WOW and 14 check the point spread. 14? Really?!?!? I imagine that spread will drop towards kickoff, because who saw anything last week that makes you think the Gamecocks can blow any team out? Well lets look at the stats. Total Defense? Identical. Vandy gives up 435.5 YPG Cocks 436. Total Offense some separation. Cocks gain 382 YPG Vandy only 328. South Carolina has done most of their damage in the air with the 17th ranked pass game Vanderbilt likewise is a pass heavy offense. Ranked 61st they average 235 YPG. Number 1 receiver is #14 Will Sheppard who is up to 634 yards on the season. That ranks him 50th in the country. Vandy will have to sweat Xavier Legette who is coming off a massive game with 9 receptions for 217 yards. Legette is currently ranked 6th in the nation with 973 yards. That’s only 60 yards from being #2 and 170 yards from being #1! Both teams have crappy pass D’s. Gamecocks ranked 126th and Vandy 112th. So our top 10 receiver should eat more than their mid pack guy. Vandy is hoping to not go winless in the conference after winning 2 last year. This is probably their best shot as their final game is at Neyland stadium. The players and coaches will pull out all the stops to try and win this game. I don’t expect it to be enough, but I do expect it to be more like last week’s victory for the Cocks. I’m taking Vandy plus 14.
GA Tech at Clemson -14.5
What a win for the Tigers last week. 3 point home underdogs to pseudo ACC rivals Notre Dame, Clemson was only down for a few minutes in the first quarter 3-0. They scored a TD to take the lead and never looked back at one point going up 24-9 before eventually winning 31-23. Clemson is saving money this year by not needing the lights for home games and that tradition continues with another noon kickoff! The Clemson faithful will have to drag themselves out of bed with the crack of dawn and try to muster some energy to cheer against Georgia Tech which has been the Vandy of the ACC. They are attempting to become bowl eligible for the 3rd time in 9 years and the first time since 2018. It’s hard to get up for this type of opponent when you feel like a perennial national contender. but that’s where the Tigers find themselves this year. Their team needs them hype to help overcome a Georgia Tech team which has an identical record as them after 9 games. Clemson may have won the game last week but lost every stat. Notre Dame out rushed, out passed, had more yards per play but it was the Defense that bailed Clemson out again. 2 interceptions! Clemson Defense makes everything possible for this team as their offense isn’t even mediocre anymore. But having the #6 D in the nation that holds opponents to 21 points ppg means your O can be sloppy and still win. GA Tech hasn’t won in Death Valley since 2008. This is their best chance to end that streak coming off back to back 300 yard rushing performances and scoring 45 & 46 back to back against ACC rivals UNC & Virginia. The losses to Bowling Green and Boston College seem light years away. I’m riding with rambling wreck!
TN at Mizzou +1
So Vegas has this as pretty much a pick em game! SI had their computer play the game 20,000 times and TN won over 12,000 times by an average of 6 points. Both teams 7-2 this is pretty much the battle for 2nd place in the SEC East. Mizzou on Tuesday said Luther Burden is questionable for this week. Even if he does play but isn’t 90% or better that’s huge problems for Mizzou. QB Brady Cook is 17th in the nation passing but Luther Burden is #7. He has about 1000 yards of the 2400 Cook has thrown for. Obviously when more than a third of your yards is coming from one guy and he goes down it’s very hard to make up. TN isn’t elite on pass D ranked 54th so if you’re bringing a top air game against them you can succeed. But again if Burden isn’t good to go the next man up is about half the stats at 530 yards. TN Offense is 13th while Mizzou is 36th with Luther Burden. TN D is 21st while Mizzou is 41st. On the ground Mizzou gives up 114 YPG while TN goes for 227. I think that spells a long night for Missouri as they are ok against average run teams. This is an elite run team. Mizzou offense however is an air attack because of Burden. Their run game is 76th. A hampered or absent Burden forces them to the strength of TN D. I’ll take the Vols.
Auburn at Arkansas -3
The Tigers have a nice lil 2 game winning streak going under 1st year coach Hugh Freeze while the Fighting Pittman’s shook the world last week hanging 39 on Florida in a major upset. That’s the most they’ve scored since their week 1 victory over the team they paid to get beat up Western Carolina. Auburn is healthy and the offensive line is really starting to click. Arkansas D has been solid all year but the offense atrocious ranked 106th. Last week their QB ran for almost 100 yards in the victory of Florida. Last year Hugh Freeze took Liberty to Arkansas and beat them. His Auburn team is much better than that athletically and is really gelling the past 2 weeks so I’ll take the Tigers.
Michigan at Penn State +4.5
This is really about Michigan and Coach Harbaugh. Will he be suspended? What are the players thinking? What is the rest of the staff thinking about? Coach Franklin is 3-6 against Michigan since taking over Penn State. He’s 3-16 against top 10 opponents. In other words he does a great job recruiting talent and can beat anyone who isn’t as good as them. When it comes to strategy he often loses when the talent is similar to his. Harbaugh has been a great recruiter and coach but last year was the first time he went undefeated in conference play. A lot of folks believe it has to do with Conor Stalions the assistant shown on video recording other teams signs a week or 2 before playing Michigan. The last time Michigan went undefeated in conference was last century in 1997. Hall of Famer Bo Schembechler did it 3 times in his entire life. Everyone thinks they’re cheaters now and how they respond to that will decide if they win. They should beat Penn State and so I’m going to believe they circle the wagons and destroy Penn State.
NC State at Wake Forest +2.5
Why is this spread so tight? Wake Forest is 4-5 while State is 6-3. Wake was just throttled by FL State and followed up with an unimpressive loss to Duke. State just beat Clemson and Miami. One team is trending up while the other is trending down. I'll take the Wolfpack!
Texas State at Coastal +1
2 6-3 teams meet in Horry County SC. It's good to touch the teal teal grass of home for the the Coastal Carolina Chanticleers. They only have 1 home loss each of the last 3 years and they've already had their 1 for 2023 against Georgia State. Give me Coastal!
Tie Breaker: Total points scored by both Clemson and USC.
54 is my answer.
Photo: Jacob Kupferman / Getty Images Sport / Getty Images