Teddy Heffner on our sister station Fox Sports 1400 has me on Friday mornings around 9:15 to discuss the biggest college games of the week. If you want to pick the games as well you could win a tailgate package from Mathias Sandwich shop if you beat me! Teddy will give you the details on how to enter. Here's the 7 games he's picked for this week along with the point spreads and the tie break question at the bottom. Would love to hear you analysis of my analysis so let me know on social media @kellynashradio
Charlotte at Scar -22
Fans are trying to figure out are the Gamecocks not very good or did they just run into 2 buzzsaws. Could it be both? A lot of folks have come into this season high off a 7 win season and now have a Heisman candidate at QB plus some other high quality transfers and thought this needs to be at least an 8 win year then. They would have to win a minimum of 6 of their remaining 9 games plus the bowl game. They will be underdogs against Clemson, Florida, Tennessee, A&M and Kentucky whom are all in the top 20 this week. We should expect the 4 wins given to us by the schedule in Charlotte, SC State, Mizzou and Vandy. Then we need one of those other 5 games to get weird and we pull it off making us bowl eligible and then win the bowl game to be at 7 again. A very tall task! But so was last year. We beat Vandy by 1 point! We upset Auburn by 4 and then found out they sucked! We snuck out of ECU with a last second field goal. We were absolutely throttled by the better teams. 25 by TN, 27 by GA, 30 by A&M and shut out 30-0 by Clemson. We were not a competitive team yet. We’re not much better this year which makes it more, not less likely to end up short of a bowl. We could conceivably lose to Mizzou…we did last year, or not win over Vandy and get throttled like we did by Arkansas and Georgia against the other ranked teams on our schedule. We could still be moving in the right direction and have a worse record. We got some good players but we also lost some of our better ones like Jabari Ellis with the Giants, JJ Enagbare with the Packers, and our all time point scorer Parker White!
Now let’s look at this game. The 49’ers were blown out by 30 in their opener against FL Atlantic. Then William & Mary took em to the wood shed 41-24. Their first power 5 team was Maryland who layed 56 on them! But then came a good Georgia State team and they won by 1! The Charlotte offense seems to be clicking! They passed for 250 against W&M, 300 against Maryland and last week over 400 yards passing against GA State. Rattler did half as well against that same D throwing for 227 yards with 2 INT’s.
The good news for Gamecocks is we hate to run but Charlotte hates to defend passes. Georgia State just threw for 343 against them and Maryland was over 400 in the air. We want to air it out and they can’t seem to stop that, so we should have our best offensive performance of the year. They’re also horrible against the run which is why they are rated the worst defense in CFB! However we’re banged up on Defense missing or limited action for Darius Rush, Devonni Reed, Cam Smith, David Spaulding, RJ Roderick, Stone Blanton and Alex Huntley. That’s more than half your starting D! Plus you already lost 2 starters for the year in Mo Kaba, and Jordan Strachan! So as the freshman try to figure this out we could be very vulnerable! Plus over the last 3 games Charlotte has averaged 29 points per game! As for our D we’re 15 spots better than Charlotte and only 3 better on the run. We suck on D. I expect us to win but not cover. 45-28.
Clemson at Wake Forest +7
Great ACC battle to start the day with a noon kickoff. True road test for the Tigers. Last year they were both ranked and Clemson blew them out 48-27. Clemson has run off 13 in a row vs the Deacons and nothing about this year tells me that streak should end. Wake Forest has 3 wins this century vs Clemson! Clemso is currently ranked 67th only averaging 427 ypg I think they are fixing that and have the tools to get back to their usual self. Perhaps not a breakout week but another step in the right direction. Clemson 31- Wake Forest 21.
Florida at Tenn +10.5
That’s a big number for 2 storied programs in a rivalry game. But what’s not to love about Tennessee? Coaches poll has them at #12. Their offense is 3rd best now averaging over 550 YPG! They play in a massive stadium which is sold out for a Saturday 3:30 kickoff on CBS. If you’re trying to sell yourself on the Gators they are 16-1 in the most recent contests with Tennessee’s only win being back in 2016. However Gator QB Anthony Richardson has not thrown a TD all season! Florida D isn’t great ranked 77th in the country right now. There’s too much orange being worn in this game for my taste but if you choose to watch expect to hear that horrible Rocky Top song all day with Tennessee winning big. 42-12.
Side note Tenn coach Josh Heupel who is a former QB from Oklahoma himself is riding on Sr QB Hendon Hooker. Hooker ranks 5th in efficiency and 4th in passing yards! Ironically Heupel wouldn’t have played him. He was sticking with the impressive talent who couldn’t score Joe Milton till he tore ligaments in his ankle and he had no other choice. Good news Gamecock fans this is Hookers senior year so this amazing rebuild may be over next season.
Ark at A&M -1.5
Arkansas has been perfect but this week they face their toughest D Line. Cincy, S Car and certainly Mizzou State don’t have the beef that A&M has. Aggies are currently the 31st best D in the country averaging 300 ypg. Arkansas is one of the worst ranked 105th with 421 YPG. There’s too much talent on the Aggies side to lose this game! Playing at home this is one of the hardest games of the year for Arkansas. A&M 27- Ark 24.
N Dame at UNC -1.5
Notre Dame was overrated as usual to start the year. They are a good, not great team. UNC may have been overrated as well looking average rather than good. Good beats average so Notre Dame should win.
Coastal -2.5 at GA State
State is winless but looked good against the Gamecocks, coulda beat UNC and lost on a last second field goal last week. Coastal QB Grayson McCall, is tied for the 10th in FBS with nine touchdown passes and just one interception! But Coastal is a rushing team averaging 180 ypg. Georgia State struggles on D giving up over 400 ypg! State is a great rushing team avg 231 ypg but their QB isn’t anywhere near as accurate a McCall. Because of that I’m taking Coastal in a fun game 31-28.
Duke at Kansas -7.5
First time Kansas has been a favorite against a power 5 team since Oct 2009! Obviously this would be a huge basketball game but it’s a good football game as both teams are 3-0. Vegas is expecting a lot scoring as well as they set the point total at 66.5. Duke allowed 20 to the NC A&T aggies in their last game which tells me they aren’t much on D. Kansas scored 40 in their last game against a good Houston team. The biggest weakness for Kansas is penalties as they are one of the most penalized teams in the country. Playing at home should help settle that down and I expect them to win big.
Tiebreaker Total yards vs Charlotte
Seeing as how Charlotte is the worst in total ypg at 563. The best offense they’ve played is Maryland who is really good averaging 499 ypg ranking them a yard behind Arkansas at #19 for the season. They almost hit 600 yards against Charlotte. Georgia State did 500. So I’ll split it and say Gamecocks have 550 yards for the game.