Friday Mornings Around 9:15 I jump on our sister station Fox Sports Radio to pick this weeks biggest games with local sports legend Teddy Heffner We have to pick against the spread. Those are the point spreads Teddy found earlier in the week so the current spread is irrelevant for our contest. Now if you'd like to pick your 7 and see if you do better than me, you could win a Mathias Sandwich Tailgate Special. You just text your picks to 803-315 3292 to be entered. You don't need to explain your picks like I do below.
This weeks games
(The Palmetto Bowl) USC +2.5 at Clemson Noon ESPN
Is South Carolina simply trying to spoil Clemson’s shot at the playoffs like in 2022 or perhaps through some miracle, play their way in? We won’t know till they’ve all been played. However this game is massive as the coaches poll has it #14 vs #12 and the AP has it #16 vs #12. Let’s focus on this game. Gamecocks lead with their D. Ranked 13th in the nation. They are really good in the red zone. If you call the LSU game an anomaly they haven’t given more than 30 all season. They’re 12th against the run only giving up 2.94 yards per carry. The knock on Carolina’s D is they give up some explosive pass plays. Not many but enough to have that ranked at 42nd. The offense is OK. Ranked 50th overall, mostly because of the run which is ranked 38th. However the last few games the pass game has been picking up for them. This week Gamecock receiver Dalevon Campbell was the highest graded receiver in the nation! Side note #2 was Mizzou’s Luther Burden and #3 was Clemson’s Antonio Williams. Which leads us to Clemson’s very balanced offense. #26 rushing and #23 passing. Combined that makes them the 6th ranked offense in America! Gamecocks will have their hands full with Dutch Forks #0 Antonio Williams and #12 Bryant Wescoe. As Cade Klubnik showed in that 50 yard run to basically win the game over Pitt he is deceptively fast. I am betting that the Gamecock edges can neutralize his speed and force quick throws or take sacks. It’s going to be up to Phil Mafah to have a huge game. Already over 1000 for the season he’s very capable. Vs VA Tech he went off for 128. VS Louisville 171! However vs Pitt he rushed 17 times for 17 yards. I’m sure Clayton White and staff are studying that to see what the trick was. At the end of the day Clemson has played far inferior teams this year and produced average results. 55th rush D, 53rd pass D, I believe like Dabo does that LaNorris is a scary guy to tackle and has a rocket of an arm. It’s hard for D’s to stay with receivers if the QB starts breaking tackles. Gamecocks are going to put up some points. Clemson will do what they have done most of the season mid 20’s. Final South Carolina 31 – Clemson 23.
TN -11 at Vandy Noon ABC
Is this Diego Pavia’s last SEC football game? He doesn’t seem like someone the NFL is interested in at 5’10” (despite Vandy listing him at 6’). His eligibility is all done. But there’s still hope as he is suing the NCAA to get eligibility back because NIL money can’t be made at the junior college level where he burned through 2 seasons. Because of the NIL difference his case argues those years shouldn’t count. His case is December 4th. Vanderbilt has lost 3 of their last 4 games. Tenn has won 5 of their last 6. TN has 2 losses. A good loss to Georgia and a bad loss to a really bad early in the season Arkansas. A 3rd loss (2nd to an unranked team) would likely drop them behind S Carolina who has 3 “good losses” to ranked teams. (and for you folks who want to point out LSU isn’t currently ranked, they were when they played which actually counts). If you classify the Alabama win as an anomaly for Vandy the most they have scored since late September is 27 points. TN looks amazing against UTEP, Kent State, Chattanooga and even a power 5 team like NC State. But against average SEC D’s they too struggle to score. Point totals in SEC play, 25, 14, 23, 24, 28, 17 and their best 33 against MS State. The same State that is not only worst in conference in total D there’s only 6 teams in the nation worse than them. Vandy is much better than that but still near the bottom of the conference on D. This makes me believe Vandy stays close. Probably don’t win but take Vandy to cover.
OK +6 at LSU 7PM on ESPN
With LSU falling off a cliff losing 3 in a row before last weeks win over Vandy and OU blowing out Bama last week who knows what will happen here?!?! Both coaches on the warm seat. It’s too expensive to get hot as the buyouts are substantial but the first 2 years have been very disappointing in Norman and this was supposed to be a CFB playoff team in Baton Rouge. Not only are they not even close the team is having players only meetings and the recruiting class for next year is starting to fall apart. Despite winning last week LSU still allowed the QB to be the top rusher for Vandy. This has been a trend started by A&M switching to a running QB in the 3rd quarter and exposing this weakness in the LSU D. They still haven’t fixed it a month later. I doubt they fix it in week 5 which means Jackson Arnold should rush for about 75 yards and OU sneaks out at least covering the spread.
TX -5.5 at A&M 7:30 on ABC
Freaking A&M blew the game in a multitude of ways last week at Auburn. As I write this on Tuesday the CFB playoff rankings aren’t yet released. That will come around 8p. The AP dropped them from 15 to 20 and I assume the committee will do something similar which puts them behind the Gamecocks and Clemson this week. To me this is a surprising point spread in that Texas seems like a much better team than A&M. I’ve got the Aggies as double-digit victors.
Miami -11 at Syracuse 3:30 on ESPN
This could be a shootout! Odds makers agree placing the over/under at 67.5. Miami D is weak. Syracuse can throw. It doesn’t matter what kind of D Syracuse has, Miami can throw. The last 4 games Syracuse has scored over 30. Miami notorious for allowing teams to hang around and often have to stage a comeback. I think they win but with Syracuse scoring don’t believe they can get double digit separation. Syracuse
UNC -3.5 at NC State 3:30 on ACC Network
The winningest coach in UNC football history was fired Tuesday. Yes 4 days before the in state rivalry game. Then they asked him to coach that game. I mean this could a lot of different ways just based off the players reactions to that news. They seem like a broken team already going down 41-7 last week to Boston College before getting some garbage time points to make the final look slightly better. However the Tarheels are bowl eligible at 6-5. On the other hand State is not. They need this game to get to 6 wins. They’re playing at home against a team they have beaten the last 3 times they’ve met. They are home underdogs! I’ll take the Pack!
Notre Dame -7.5 at Southern Cal 3:30 ET on CBS
Notre Dame is trying to punch their ticket into the playoffs. After losing to Northern Illinois they have run off 9 in a row. However they have played one of the weakest schedules in CFB currently ranked 82nd. If they lose a 2nd game to an unranked opponent it’s hard to imagine them being in the top 12. Southern Cal’s best loss was to Penn State 33-30. But they’ve had other OK loses. Michigan 27-24, Maryland 29-28 and Washinton 26-21. My point is they stick around. Of their 5 losses none was more than 7. Based off that and they’re the home dog I’ll take Southern Cal to cover.
Tiebreaker. Teddy said QB’s yards. I believe he means passing yards in the Palmetto Bowl. Not using Wofford numbers. The last 3 games LaNorris threw 353 vs Mizzou (#18 pass D), 238 vs Vandy (#95) and 244 vs A&M (#81). Clemson is the 49th total D, 53rd passing D. LaNorris and his receivers are gaining confidence each week. With that being said this is a better D so I’ll put LaNorris at 235. Forgetting the Citadel game Cade over the past 3 games has thrown for 288 vs Pitt (#117 pass D). 211 vs VA Tech (#64) and 228 vs Louisville (#86) S Carolina is a pretty big step up in pass D ranked #42. For that reason I’ll put Cade at 175. Total for the 2 QB’s then is 320.