College Football Picks For This Saturday

Every Friday morning I join Teddy Heffner host of "Talking Sports" on Fox Sports 1400. Teddy gives away tailgate package from Mathias Sandwich shop to someone who can beat our picks. The picks include point spreads so for example if a team is a 10 point underdog and they lose by 9 then they have won. If you'd like to text your picks to enter get them in before Saturday noon on the Talking Sports Text Line at 803-315-3292. Now here's this weeks games and my picks.

USC at TN+12.5

Last year something clicked for the Gamecocks offense and Spencer Rattler ended up throwing for 438 yards and 6 TD’s. Something similar will have to happen Saturday night in Knoxville for another victory to occur. Gamecocks didn’t have an answer for either Hendon Hooker, and when he tore his ACL couldn’t stop Joe Milton who between the 2 threw for 355 yards. Tennessee must score in bunches. They have lost every game under Josh Heupel where they didn’t score at least 30 and won everyone except 1except 1 where they scored more than 30 in regulation. (they lost to Purdue in ot with 45). TN also has a home field advantage with the 4th longest home winning streak in the nation. The Gamecocks have struggled on the road with a 4-9 record away from Willie B. Gamecocks D is on par with Colorado. Almost nonexistent at this point with both ranked in the 120’s. TN’s D is ranked 27th surrender 302 YPG. Their offense is even better ranked at 24th with 6.6 YPP and over 460 YPG. Even in their loss to FL they out gained the Gators but were done in by 10 penalties and a turnover. And Florida has the #10 D in the nation!Here’s where it gets interesting for Gamecock fans. Joe Milton’s best game was his first. He has gotten worse every game with completion percentage going from 70, 63, 59, 58. He has the strongest arm in CFB but his accuracy and touch isn’t there. There’s also rumors Joe Milton hurt his left leg in the UTSA game. Coach Heupel confirmed they did an MRI to start the week but says he should be fine for Saturday. Miss State burned us on long balls. Milton can’t do that. If they can keep the receptions short they could be able to bog them down in the red zone and settle for 3. I’ll take Gamecocks and the points.

Clemson at Syracuse.-7

Another noon kickoff for the Tigers this time helping them as any home team support the Orange may have will be muted in upstate NY, Syracuse is trying to get folks out running a 40% off sale now tickets to the game.

Cuse is an undefeated underdog at home. That in itself demands we take the Orange. Dabo also seems to be a bit delusional about his own team stating “These guys, without a doubt, are three plays away from being 4-0. That's a fact”. They lost by 3 touchdowns in their first game so it’s not even mathematically possible. But the reality is their QB play is down. They’re the 38th ranked passing offense but it’s only that high because they throw it so much. 159 attempts for 1100 yards compared to SC who has 20 fewer attempts for 260 more yards. In fact Clemson is averaging less than 7 yards per attempt which is allowing defenses to creep up and stunt their run game as well. Obviously they have no kicking game! Syracuse has more passing yards then Clemson on 29 fewer attempts but also a long attempt average of 9 yards. Clemson Is still a good rushing team at over 5 yards per attempt but the longer their QB troubles continue (Cade Klubnik currently rated as 10th best in ACC) the more D’s will start focusing on stuffing the run.

Florida at Kentucky -1

Another nooner. Kentucky doesn’t have much noise anyways but a night game would have helped them. And they need all the help they can get this week. Home field is worth 3 points which means they would be 2 underdogs on a neutral field and -5 in Florida. The toughest D Kentucky has faced was Vandy. It’s a big step up to the #1 ranked SEC D in FL. The score against Vanderbilt was impressive 45-28, but the total yards not so much, 365. Vanderbilt throwing 3 interceptions had a big reason in them soundly losing. But remember they scored 28 points on the Kentucky D and threw for 231 yards. The pass D is suspect. Florida is ranked 55th in the pass but I believe they will get it going this weekend. I’m taking the Gators.

A&M vs Arkansas +6.5

This is a neutral site game in Arlington TX. Razorbacks lost by a TD to BYU and a FG to LSU. They aren’t a bad 2-2 team. A&M won the stat game a few weeks ago vs Miami but threw 2 interceptions and that led to a 2 TD loss to the hurricanes. Breaking news Wednesday is that A&M QB Conner Weigman is out with a broken foot throws all of this into disarray. They had been one of the top pass offenses averaging over 300 YPG. Based on nothing else other than the QB missing the game, I’m taking Arkansas.

Notre Dame at Duke +5.5

Notre Dame not only lost to Ohjo State last week they may have lost 2 of their best receivers for this week. Jayden Thomas has 13 receptions and a TD and apparently added a pulled hamstring to that impressive list. Deion Colze has injured his knee. But the Irish don’t need to score much with their D being so good. They only allow on average 12 points a game. Duke on the other hand can run the rock averaging over 200 YPG! Their Achilles is penalties 20 so far for 140 yards. And their D is even better statistically only giving up 133 YPG in total offense and 8 points! All of that and they’re at home? Give me Duke and the points!

LSU at Ole Miss +2.5

An SEC slobber knocker! #13 comes to Oxford to battle #20 the fighting Kiffin’s! After last weeks loss to Bama Lane is now 8-22 against ranked opponents in his HC career. Brian Kelly at LSU is better but not great against top 25 teams going 34-31 over his career. He has really struggled against top 10 opponents going 5-15. So I’d give the nod to Kelly on coaching and definitely the nod on talent as they are consistently top 5 in recruit rankings and Ole Miss was ranked 12th in the SEC 3 of the last 4 years. I like most home underdogs, but this ain’t most. Give me LSU

Coastal at GA Southern -6.5

The last time these 2 met Southern came to Conway and the 2 made an instant classic with 3 lead changes with the last one being a 28 yard run with 45 seconds left, down 2, finished by Coastal’s CJ Beasly legitimaly jumping over a 5’11” defender at the 5 to land in the end zone! It was ESPN’s play of the day. The good news is CJ is back and so is NFL draft prospect QB Grayson McCall! The bad news is HC Jamey Chadwell is gone. Coastal had 3 losses last year and after 4 games this year have 2. I expect after their 5th game they’ll be at 3 losses. Georgia State beat them by 13 last week and while GA Southern has 1 loss it was to Wisconsin. Last week they won 40-3 over a more similar school in Ball State. I’m taking the Eagles to cover.

Tie Breaker USC + Clemson total offense

This will be the best offense YN has seen this year. The best till now was Florida and they had 350. Last week the UTSA Roadrunners put 320 on em. Gamecocks had a bad game against UNC and still put 350 up. 430 last week so I’ll go 380 this week. Clemson vs FL State and Duke still moved the ball very well around 425 per game. Syracuse has had a cupcake schedule vs Colgate, Army, Western MI and Purdue The boilermakers are at least a power 5 team but are 1-3 on the season and they were able to get 403 yards on Cuse. So I’ll put Clemson at 460 for the day. Total 780 yards